Hispanic voters have shown their ability to sway elections, and this year there are warning signs for Republicans with the key voting group.
The main reason is not President Trump‘s immigration crackdown, but the cost of living. Polling in September showed that only 18% of Hispanics approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, a lower rating than in the overall U.S. population.
More than 65% of Hispanics say they are frustrated with Mr. Trump’s job performance and 78% said they would prefer to see the Democratic Party in control of Congress.
“Hispanics are overwhelmingly a working-class population … and so inflation hits much harder,” said Steve Cortes, a pollster who led Hispanic outreach for Mr. Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. “Gas prices are especially punishing to Hispanic workers, especially Hispanic men, and that’s where most of the gains were made [in 2024], and that’s where we’re seeing most of the losses now.”
He warned Republicans in tough races against parroting “the open borders nonsense.”
UnidosUS, an organization that studies Hispanic voter participation, found in a May poll that immigration is the fifth most important issue for voters – behind inflation, jobs/wages, healthcare and housing.
But some Republican candidates are focused on distancing themselves from Mr. Trump’s deportation sweeps.
GOP Rep. Maria Salazar directly confronts Mr. Trump in an ad in her Florida district.
“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” she says in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”
Mr. Trump, who hosted a Hispanic Heritage Month celebration at the White House, is seeking to shore up the Hispanic vote with the midterms just a month away.
The president said that under his administration, more Hispanics are working today compared to any other time in U.S. history, the number of Hispanics in tech roles increased by 30% compared to last year and the poverty level across all demographics reached the lowest level in history.
He said he isn’t getting enough credit for the gains made by Hispanics during his time in the White House.
“Nobody’s selling it,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion and an extremely great job of running the country. I think you’re better off … but we’ll get the word out.”
Mr. Trump captured 47% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. Hispanics account for about 15% of the total U.S. voting population.
If the polls are accurate, Hispanics could be a big part of a blue wave next month.
Faced with such headwinds, Republicans are doubling down on a strategy of trying to raise the unfavorable ratings of Democratic candidates via negative ads.
Democrat James Talarico’s campaign got an early warning this month when a Texas South University poll showed his unfavorable rating climbing to 50% in his Senate race against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The shift lines up with the GOP’s broader strategy of addition by erosion, the belief that tearing down Democrats will lift Republicans in a tough political climate.
Chris LaCivita, an architect of Mr. Trump’s 2024 win and the infamous “Swift Boat” ads that helped sink John Kerry’s 2004 bid, said favorable‑unfavorable ratings are a clear sign of where a race is headed, and that campaigns “spend so much time beating the hell out of their opponent because the higher the negative, the higher the anti‑vote becomes.”
If Mr. LaCivita is right, it’s bad news for Democrats — including Mr. Talarico.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Republicans have built their strategy around driving up Mr. Talarico’s unfavorable numbers because “it’s going to be a lot easier to raise Talarico’s unfavorables than to raise Paxton’s favorables.”
The idea is to give GOP voters who are undecided or leaning toward Mr. Talarico “a reason to reconsider,” especially if both candidates start to look flawed. Rising negatives could also draw out voters who might otherwise stay home.
“They’re not turning out to vote for Ken Paxton — they’re turning out to vote against James Talarico,” Mr. Jones said.
MAGA Inc. recently started running an ad that opens with a narrator saying, “James Talarico is weird — very weird.” The spot highlights past remarks by Mr. Talarico, including that there are six biological sexes, that “Jesus Christ Himself was a radical feminist” and that “God is nonbinary.” The narrator closes with: “Liberal weirdo James Talarico. Too loco for Texas.”