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Welcome to On Background, the politics newsletter that brings you insights from Capitol Hill to the campaign trail from veteran journalists at The Washington Times.

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Hispanic voters have shown their ability to sway elections, and this year there are warning signs for Republicans with the key voting group.

The main reason is not President Trump‘s immigration crackdown, but the cost of living. Polling in September showed that only 18% of Hispanics approve of Mr. Trump’s handling of the economy, a lower rating than in the overall U.S. population.

More than 65% of Hispanics say they are frustrated with Mr. Trump’s job performance and 78% said they would prefer to see the Democratic Party in control of Congress.

“Hispanics are overwhelmingly a working-class population … and so inflation hits much harder,” said Steve Cortes, a pollster who led Hispanic outreach for Mr. Trump’s 2016 and 2020 presidential campaigns. “Gas prices are especially punishing to Hispanic workers, especially Hispanic men, and that’s where most of the gains were made [in 2024], and that’s where we’re seeing most of the losses now.”

He warned Republicans in tough races against parroting “the open borders nonsense.”

UnidosUS, an organization that studies Hispanic voter participation, found in a May poll that immigration is the fifth most important issue for voters – behind inflation, jobs/wages, healthcare and housing.

But some Republican candidates are focused on distancing themselves from Mr. Trump’s deportation sweeps.

GOP Rep. Maria Salazar directly confronts Mr. Trump in an ad in her Florida district.

“Mr. President, some of your immigration enforcement efforts have gone too far,” she says in the ad. “The same Hispanics who helped you get to the White House in 2024 feel betrayed today.”

Mr. Trump, who hosted a Hispanic Heritage Month celebration at the White House, is seeking to shore up the Hispanic vote with the midterms just a month away.

The president said that under his administration, more Hispanics are working today compared to any other time in U.S. history, the number of Hispanics in tech roles increased by 30% compared to last year and the poverty level across all demographics reached the lowest level in history.

He said he isn’t getting enough credit for the gains made by Hispanics during his time in the White House.

“Nobody’s selling it,” Mr. Trump said. “We’re doing an extremely poor job of promotion and an extremely great job of running the country. I think you’re better off … but we’ll get the word out.”

Mr. Trump captured 47% of the Hispanic vote in 2024, a record for a Republican presidential candidate. Hispanics account for about 15% of the total U.S. voting population.

If the polls are accurate, Hispanics could be a big part of a blue wave next month.

Faced with such headwinds, Republicans are doubling down on a strategy of trying to raise the unfavorable ratings of Democratic candidates via negative ads.

Democrat James Talarico’s campaign got an early warning this month when a Texas South University poll showed his unfavorable rating climbing to 50% in his Senate race against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The shift lines up with the GOP’s broader strategy of addition by erosion, the belief that tearing down Democrats will lift Republicans in a tough political climate.

Chris LaCivita, an architect of Mr. Trump’s 2024 win and the infamous “Swift Boat” ads that helped sink John Kerry’s 2004 bid, said favorable‑unfavorable ratings are a clear sign of where a race is headed, and that campaigns “spend so much time beating the hell out of their opponent because the higher the negative, the higher the anti‑vote becomes.”

If Mr. LaCivita is right, it’s bad news for Democrats — including Mr. Talarico.

Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Republicans have built their strategy around driving up Mr. Talarico’s unfavorable numbers because “it’s going to be a lot easier to raise Talarico’s unfavorables than to raise Paxton’s favorables.”

The idea is to give GOP voters who are undecided or leaning toward Mr. Talarico “a reason to reconsider,” especially if both candidates start to look flawed. Rising negatives could also draw out voters who might otherwise stay home.

“They’re not turning out to vote for Ken Paxton — they’re turning out to vote against James Talarico,” Mr. Jones said.

MAGA Inc. recently started running an ad that opens with a narrator saying, “James Talarico is weird — very weird.” The spot highlights past remarks by Mr. Talarico, including that there are six biological sexes, that “Jesus Christ Himself was a radical feminist” and that “God is nonbinary.” The narrator closes with: “Liberal weirdo James Talarico. Too loco for Texas.”

In the Trump administration

President Donald Trump speaks in the East Room of the White House, Tuesday Sept. 29, 2026, during a meeting and luncheon on artificial intelligence (AI), in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Tech industry, heal thyself. Mr. Trump agreed with more than two dozen of the nation’s top artificial intelligence leaders to rely on “tremendous self-regulation” for the industry, turning aside calls for tough rules on the burgeoning technology.

After a closed-door meeting at the White House, Mr. Trump said he and House Speaker Mike Johnson had a “very productive, extremely friendly” meeting with tech titans such as Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei, OpenAI President Greg Brockman and Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang.

The White House and the AI developers signed a “Joint Commitment on Frontier Responsibilities” that Mr. Johnson described as “voluntary.”

The single-page document identifies “four layers of controls and audits” the companies are expected to implement.

Mr. Trump said the U.S. has “a very big lead and we’re going to keep our lead” in the industry, adding that some say AI is “bigger than the Industrial Revolution.”

“There’s a belief that there should be tremendous self-regulation,” the president told reporters. “We automatically have regulation with … the FBI and all of that.”

The gathering came amid doomsday warnings about AI and concerns about rogue models hacking into systems, with some industry leaders cautioning that the technology in the wrong hands could become a threat to civilization.

Many lawmakers, particularly Democrats, are pushing for Congress to approve laws setting AI safety standards.

The Federal Trade Commission is probing Anthropic, OpenAI and other frontier labs over the potential dangers their technology poses to consumers.

The investigation comes amid urgent concerns about AI’s immediate societal harms and long-term existential risks.

FTC Chairman Andrew Ferguson reportedly kicked off the probe before OpenAI models escaped an enclosed testing environment and hacked startup Hugging Face in July, an incident that triggered widespread fears regarding highly autonomous rogue AI agents.

Models from Anthropic and Meta reached the internet because of a test-environment misconfiguration and accessed outside systems without authorization, the companies said.

The Justice Department filed a misconduct complaint asking that federal judges in Minnesota be barred from hearing any more immigration cases after most of them participated in a press interview where they complained about Mr. Trump’s policies and compared them to China or North Korea.

DOJ leaders said the New York Times article, which reported speaking to seven judges, showed the judges have an animosity toward the Department of Homeland Security, undermining the impartiality of the federal court in Minnesota.

In the article, the judges questioned the wisdom of DHS’s arrests and said DOJ was incompetent in handling the tsunami of legal cases that flowed from the immigration enforcement surge in the Minneapolis area earlier this year.

“These judges should be ordered to recuse from any matters involving DHS because the public reasonably questions their impartiality in cases involving immigration,” acting Deputy Attorney General Trent McCotter and Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in the complaint.

Rebeccah Parks, a spokeswoman for the district judges, said in a statement that the comments for the article were “well within the ethical rules.” The two judges who spoke on the record are Patrick J. Schiltz, a George W. Bush appointee, and John Tunheim, a Clinton appointee.

Filing the complaint marks an escalation by the Justice Department in a battle that has lasted most of the year.

Minnesota’s federal judges were particularly harsh in rulings against the Trump administration amid the surge, ordering the release of migrants who had been arrested and coming down hard when the government didn’t move quickly to comply.

On Capitol Hill

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., meets with reporters after a closed-door meeting with fellow Democrats, at the Capitol in Washington, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Democrats for the block. Senate Democrats blocked a House-passed bill to ban the purchase of individual stocks by members of Congress. Every Democrat voted against advancing the bill, which failed on a party-line 53-47 vote.

It would have prohibited members of Congress and their close family members from making new purchases of individual stocks and required them to disclose stock sales at least a week in advance.

The bill included election-related provisions, sought by Mr. Trump, requiring voters to show photo ID in federal elections. Senate Democrats, who had blocked ID requirements several times before, signaled beforehand they would not change course.

“If Republican senators really cared about stopping stock trading by members, they wouldn’t have loaded it up with a poison pill voter ID bill, which Senate Democrats have defeated already twice,” said Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat. “All they really want is to score political points before they head home to campaign.”

Senate Democrats also blocked a House-passed bill to protect consumers from data center-driven electricity rate increases, arguing it was “toothless” and that Republicans have already agreed to stronger language in a separate deal.

The Ratepayer Protection Act passed the House in September in an overwhelming 417-3 vote.

Four Senate Democrats — Jon Ossoff and Raphael G. Warnock of Georgia, Margaret Wood Hassan of New Hampshire and Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota — joined all Republicans in voting for the bill.

Mr. Ossoff is the only incumbent Democrat up for reelection in November who is considered vulnerable, but Mr. Warnock and Ms. Hassan are often considered in danger when they are in cycle. Ms. Klobuchar is running for governor in Minnesota.

Election-year politics in the Senate were mostly to blame for the procedural vote failing.

The Senate approved a measure to set guidelines for college student-athlete compensation, but the bill has a slim chance of becoming law for now because the House is out of session until after the November elections.

The Senate passed the landmark legislation to federally regulate college sports compensation, transfers and scholarships in a 77-22 vote.

The bill guarantees athletes the right to profit from their name, image and likeness, known as NIL. It also sets rules on athletes’ ability to transfer schools and requires top-tier schools to maintain programs and scholarships for sports that do not draw as much attention.

In the courts

A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement flight operates out of King County International Airport-Boeing Field, Aug. 23, 2025, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Lindsey Wasson, File)

Green light for deportations plan. The Supreme Court gave tentative permission for the Department of Homeland Security to keep carrying out deportations of migrants to third countries when their own homes won’t take them back, setting aside limits imposed by a lower court.

The justices issued a brief order accepting the case for a full review and staying the district judge’s decision while the matter is pending.

The court’s three Democratic appointees said they dissented.

DHS had warned of “chaos” in deportations if the justices didn’t intervene.

“Absent an effective third-country removal policy, the United States is forced to retain (and often release into the interior) vicious criminals who have already harmed our communities,” D. John Sauer, the solicitor general, told the court in his petition asking for a ruling.

Immigrant rights advocates decried the high court’s action.

“This ruling is another tool the federal government is using to expand its mass deportation agenda, putting more lives at risk and destabilizing our communities,” said Murad Awawdeh, president of the New York Immigration Coalition.

At issue are the procedures and notices DHS must give migrants before they’re sent to third countries and the assurances the government must have that migrants won’t face persecution or torture there.

The Supreme Court agreed to take up a case challenging the Trump administration’s claim that it can detain illegal immigrants without a bond hearing, even if they’ve been living inside the country for years.

The mandatory detention policy is critical to Mr. Trump’s mass deportation campaign. Experts say that if illegal immigrants are detained, they can be deported relatively quickly, but if they are released from custody it becomes much tougher to actually boot them out.

Illegal immigrants arriving at the border have long been subject to mandatory detention, but past administrations treated those already in the interior differently. The Trump administration said the law allows them to be treated the same as new arrivals, because they never were formally admitted.

Lower courts, for the most part, have disagreed.

In our opinion

The midterms with the Republicans and President Donald Trump on the Titanic illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

The Trump administration is focused on the wrong things — vanity projects instead of the midterm elections — as the GOP sails into rough seas, argues Commentary Editor Kelly Sadler.

Congress today needs lawmakers who are willing to reach across the aisle, write Clarine Nardi Riddle and Michael Bopp.

F. Vincent Vernuccio lauds the House for passing pro-worker labor reform legislation.

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