Peter Morici

With election in sight, U.S. economy faces bumpy landing

The economy will dodge a recession, but it won't be a soft landing -- a steady growth path with inflation at about 2%.

July 2, 2024

Americans pay a price for Federal Reserve’s procrastination

Investors, homebuyers and others needing credit hang to news about inflation and employment, looking for cues about when the Federal Reserve will start lowering interest rates.

June 25, 2024

Federal Reserve may have to abandon its 2% inflation target

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has Fed policymakers and America's decision-makers --businesses that set prices and households who choose among goods to purchase and investment options -- focused on how much longer interest rates must be kept elevated to achieve 2% inflation.

June 18, 2024

Biden’s free spending risks dollar’s global status

The United States prints the world's gold, and that bestows a huge privilege.

June 11, 2024

Trump and Biden should debate taxes, new Cold War and immigration

Former President Donald Trump's legal woes, President Biden's age and their colorful campaign rhetoric can easily distract voters from the nation's tough challenges.

June 4, 2024

The skunk at Fed Chairman Powell’s tea party

News that inflation eased in April inspired euphoria in securities markets.

May 28, 2024

We need Biden’s tariffs on Chinese EVs and free trade with our friends

China is winning the race to dominate the electric vehicle industry.

May 21, 2024

American exceptionalism on full display in financial markets … or is it?

The U.S. economy has confounded forecasters' dour predictions, but not the optimism of financial markets.

May 14, 2024

Fixing American foreign and trade policies to support innovative economy

America's foreign policy is broken. Across major theaters, U.S. policy is burdened by deficits between ends and means.

May 7, 2024

Without higher taxes and tariffs, dollar could cease to be world’s reserve currency

Whoever captures the White House, the federal government faces daunting fiscal challenges and tough "guns and butter" trade-offs.

April 30, 2024

Fed should let interest rates rise to support healthy growth

Federal Reserve policymakers have been obsessed with when they may safely lower interest rates to avoid a recession without impeding the path to 2% inflation.

April 23, 2024

Americans should be more optimistic about our economy

Americans are down on the economy and believe the country is headed in the wrong direction. Yet the metrics of economic health are good, and our friends and rivals in Europe and Asia face more troubling prospects.

April 16, 2024

Minority voters fleeing Democratic Party will instigate radical, populist policies

Minority voters are shifting from the Democratic Party, and a realignment around blue-collar, populist values will have important consequences for economic policy.

April 9, 2024

Fed Chairman Powell Is too eager to cut interest rates

Federal Reserve policymakers appear poised to cut interest rates three times this year -- and sadly, this could boost inflation and slow longer-term economic growth.

April 2, 2024

Trump’s China tariffs would be inflationary, but that can be fixed

If reelected, former President Donald Trump promises more radical measures than during his first term, including a 60% tariff on Chinese imports.

March 26, 2024

Buckle up: Soft landing for the economy is anything but certain

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is poised for a soft landing. Recently, he testified that the central bank may soon be able to cut interest rates.

March 19, 2024

Americans, European allies will long regret failing to confront Russia and Iran

America and its allies will long regret failing to directly confront wanton aggression in Ukraine and the Middle East. The economic costs will be real and substantial.

March 12, 2024

Trouble at New York Community Bank spells more bank failures, bailouts

When Silicon Valley Bank failed last year, cries went out for tougher bank regulations and bigger capital requirements to back up loans.

March 5, 2024

Federal Reserve chief Powell should go fly-fishing and leave interest rates alone

Economic news has been good lately. Gross domestic product grew 3.3% in the fourth quarter, and inflation has come down.

February 27, 2024

How inflation works against Biden

Inflation has come down, but not enough. President Biden does not get much love for that.

February 20, 2024