Where exactly is Mojtaba Khamenei?
The 56-year-old Iranian supreme leader’s whereabouts were thrust into the spotlight Sunday after reports that he may have fled Iran. Some analysts say Mr. Khamenei may be in Russia, an Iranian ally with a track record of offering asylum to hard-line heads of state.
Other sources say that it is unlikely and that he is probably still in Iran. The increasingly loud rumors of his departure, those sources argue, could be part of a sophisticated Israeli intelligence operation to sow confusion in Tehran and further weaken an embattled regime that faces enormous economic and military pressure from the U.S. and growing isolation across the Middle East.
The uncertainty about Mr. Khamenei — Iran’s current supreme leader, who assumed office on March 8 after the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, killed in a joint U.S.-Israeli airstrike — comes at a crucial moment. The U.S. and Iran are barreling toward a return to full-blown war, if they are not there already, after the collapse of a roughly two-month ceasefire between the two sides.
The Iranian ballistic missile attack last week on an air base in Jordan, which killed at least four American service members, deepened the cycle of escalation. An initial death toll of two rose in subsequent days to four American service members, including one killed in Iraq, according to CENTCOM and Air and Space Forces reporting.
As the country’s foremost religious and political authority, Mr. Khamenei seemingly would be positioned to play a central role in guiding his regime’s strategic decisions.
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Instead, he has been almost entirely absent from public view, and the extent of his behind-the-scenes power remains deeply uncertain. He did not even make a public appearance during the recent days-long funeral ceremony for his father.
Israeli and Western intelligence sources believe he sustained injuries during the U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign and may have suffered severe facial burns.
With U.S. forces now bombing Iranian targets on a daily basis, it seems conceivable that Mr. Khamenei could decide his best course of action is to leave Iran entirely. If that is the case, some specialists say, there is only one realistic destination.
“Russia is really the only country where he might be,” said Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum.
“It’s too hard to get to Yemen. Israel can get him in Lebanon. The United States could grab him from Pakistan, and I doubt China really cares too much about him to fall on their sword on this one,” Mr. Rubin told The Washington Times.
“It’s Russia or bust,” he said.
Iran, Russia, China and North Korea are widely viewed as the core members of the “axis of authoritarians,” a collection of autocratic nations that seek to challenge what they view as a U.S.-dominated 21st-century global order.
Russia also has a recent history of giving asylum to embattled Middle East leaders. Former Syrian President Bashar Assad is believed to still be in Moscow after fleeing Damascus during the December 2024 overthrow of his government by a rebel alliance.
The recent round of speculation about Mr. Khamenei gained steam over the weekend after the Saudi broadcaster Al Hadath cited an anonymous Israeli security source saying the Iranian leader had left the country. That report was picked up by other news organizations around the world. Still, other Israeli officials were quoted in media reports saying that the Jewish state believes Mr. Khamenei is still in Tehran.
Those conflicting accounts could reflect an attempt by Israeli intelligence to raise questions about Iranian leadership and weaken the Iranian public’s faith in its government.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow and founding director of the Iran program at the Middle East Institute, told The Times that Mr. Khamenei would be taking a massive risk by leaving the country.
“To me, this doesn’t make sense. … This is misinformation or disinformation,” he said. “The Israelis might have said it for the purpose of creating panic inside the ranks of the regime, see if they can detect any movement.”
Mr. Vatanka also rejected the notion that Mr. Khamenei would flee Iran for Russia.
“This isn’t Taliban country. They’ve got doctors. They’ve got medical facilities. Why would they trust the Russians?” he said. “There’s absolutely no evidence that the Iranians have such trust in the Russians.”
One of the few certainties around Mr. Khamenei is that he, or someone speaking on his behalf, remains a prolific force on social media.
“The Great Satan — the criminal U.S. — has now realized that the continuation of its trouble-free, domineering presence in the region is nothing but a naive fantasy,” according to a post on his X account Sunday.
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