The crisis in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing Middle East nations to explore new routes for critical oil exports, easing the global supply crunch and reducing Iran’s ability to use the waterway as a source of leverage.
The new pathways could become permanent and reshape how the Gulf region exports crude.
Efforts to re-route oil can be arduous, however, and attempts to rebuild or resuscitate old pipelines will take time.
“Gulf Arab oil producers are seeking to diversify their export options to avoid the Strait of Hormuz, but they face a capacity issue,” said Gordon Gray, a former U.S. ambassador to Tunisia and professor of Gulf and Arabian Peninsula affairs at George Washington University. “Alternate routes can only make up half of the estimated 20 million barrels that used to pass through the Strait of Hormuz on a daily basis.”
Tehran in March severely curtailed commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow channel between Iran and Oman, in retaliation for U.S.-Israeli airstrikes that began on Feb. 28.
Vessels have to navigate possible mines in the strait and sporadic attacks, making the passage perilous and causing a global energy shortfall that resulted in higher oil prices.
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Prewar flows of oil through the Strait of Hormuz accounted for about 20% of global consumption. Disruptions in the strait have curtailed shipments to less than half of pre-conflict levels, with daily fluctuations depending on the threat level in the waterway.
Gulf nations are tapping into alternatives, including pipelines that flow away from the strait toward other ports.
Saudi Arabia is exporting oil through Yanbu, a port on the Red Sea, while the United Arab Emirates is using its terminals in Fujairah, an emirate on the Gulf of Oman beyond the Strait of Hormuz.
Earlier this summer, the Iraqi government approved preliminary deals between the Basra Oil Co. and a U.S. consortium that involves Chevron to explore ways to revive the Haditha-Baniyas pipeline corridor connecting Iraq’s oil network and Mediterranean ports in Syria.
“Iran’s persistent harassment of vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz has led oil companies and regional producers to adapt, develop, and, in some cases, expand alternative routes,” said Caleb Jasso, a senior policy adviser at the Institute for Energy Research. “Continued conflict in the region, particularly as ships are targeted while transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, will further increase interest in, and the necessity to, develop and expand alternative pipeline networks to get the region’s oil to the global market.”
The projects face near-term and long-term challenges. The UAE is working around the clock to double its output from Fujairah by 2027, and reviving the Iraq-Syria route could take up to four years.
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Further, Red Sea ports such as Yanbu face potential attacks and disruptions by the Iran-backed Houthis, an anti-Saudi faction in Yemen.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright this month said there have been signs of improvement.
He said U.S. military actions were improving flows through the Strait of Hormuz, and pipeline efforts were nearly closing the remaining shortfall.
“When combined with the additional 5-7 million barrels per day leaving the region via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, total oil flows are currently averaging approximately 15 million barrels per day,” Mr. Wright said Aug. 11 on X.
Some experts were skeptical, given ongoing attacks and reports of sluggish traffic in the strait that remains far below pre-war levels.
The U.S. Navy is maintaining a heavy presence in the Strait of Hormuz and directing traffic, resulting in an undisclosed amount of oil flow that might be known to Mr. Wright and the military, though not the general public.
As a result, Mr. Wright’s estimate “may not be far off,” said Joel Rayburn, a senior fellow at the Center for Peace and Security in the Middle East within the Hudson Institute, a Washington-based think tank.
“Certainly in the range of 12 to 13 [million barrels per day] would, I think, be plausible,” Mr. Rayburn said.
President Trump says things will only improve as the Navy takes control of who gets through the strait.
“The only ships that get through are the ones that we want to get through. Iran doesn’t control the strait. We control the strait,” the president said recently.
However, ships continue to be attacked, including a vessel that was struck by a projectile on Tuesday, killing a crew member and damaging the engine room.
Brent crude oil prices have been volatile throughout the Iran conflict. They sat around $85 to $90 per barrel in recent days, down from plus-$100 per barrel at the war’s peak but up 20% to 30% compared to prewar levels.
Gasoline is refined from crude, so Americans are seeing higher prices at the pump.
The average U.S. price of gas is hovering above $4 per gallon, up from just above $3 per gallon in mid-August 2025.
Mr. Trump says the economic pain will be short-lived and is necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
Looking ahead, analysts said there is reason to believe companies will make their alternative routes permanent because of the large investments in them, particularly pipelines and the expansion of port facilities.
Iran and Oman have debated ways to manage the strait and even charge tolls on ships, indicating they see the waterway as a font of perpetual leverage.
“The Iranians have shown that if they can do it once, there is a danger they will do it in the future,” Mr. Rayburn said.
Some Trump administration officials say the Strait of Hormuz will become obsolete as an oil corridor.
“The strait is never going back to the way it was because the Iranians have used, or tried to use it, as a chokepoint,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told 12News reporter Mark Curtis in Arizona earlier this month.
“What we are going to see over the next two years is the strait is going to become irrelevant,” Mr. Bessent said. “It is going to become just another body of water, and I would say that more than 50% or 70% of the energy that moves through the strait now is going to go through underground pipelines.”
His remarks could prove prescient, given unfolding trends. But countries such as Kuwait and Qatar — unlike Saudi Arabia and the UAE — would have to rely on neighboring countries’ infrastructure because they lack workarounds of their own to avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
Also, many industries rely on the Strait of Hormuz as a critical transit point for commodities other than oil, such as fertilizer and helium.
“Although Iran may pose a permanent threat to vessels transiting through the Strait of Hormuz and therefore diminish the route’s overall strategic value,” Mr. Jasso said, “it likely won’t be entirely disregarded, given the need to ship other goods such as liquefied natural gas and petrochemicals.”
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