Crime is down: Why leadership matters

OPINION:

For years, Americans were told by the left that rising crime was either exaggerated, the result of poverty, caused by COVID, or simply the unavoidable cost of modern life. None of those assertions is true.

Victims, police officers, prosecutors, and families living in high-crime neighborhoods knew better. They understood that crime is not an abstraction. It is a stolen vehicle, a broken window, a family traumatized by violence, or a neighborhood slowly surrendered to fear.

That is why the preliminary results of the just-released 2025 National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) deserve serious attention. The numbers point in one direction: crime fell substantially across nearly every major category measured by the survey.

The results are preliminary, and responsible observers will await final estimates and additional analysis. But the trend is unmistakable — and it coincides with a national agenda that has placed public safety, border security, law enforcement, and support for victims at the center of federal policy.

According to the preliminary estimates from the Bureau of Justice Statistics, the rate of serious violent victimization — violent crime excluding simple assault — fell 25%, from 9.9 victimizations per 1,000 people age 12 or older in 2024 to 7.4 per 1,000 in 2025. Aggravated assault declined even more sharply, dropping 31% from 4.5 to 3.1 per 1,000.

The property-crime figures are equally striking. Property victimization declined 19%, from 138.0 per 1,000 households to 111.2 per 1,000. Burglary or trespassing fell 25%. Motor vehicle theft declined 30%, representing approximately 349,000 fewer stolen vehicles. Other household theft declined 19%, while burglary and trespassing represented roughly 460,000 fewer victimizations.

These are not minor statistical adjustments. They represent fewer people harmed, fewer families disrupted, and fewer communities forced to absorb the economic and emotional costs of crime.

The NCVS is particularly important because it captures criminal victimization whether or not the victim reported the offense to police. Each year, the Bureau of Justice Statistics gathers information from a nationally representative sample of approximately 240,000 people age 12 or older in about 150,000 households.

It therefore complements the FBI’s Uniform Crime Reporting data, which are based primarily on information supplied by law enforcement agencies.

The two measures tell a consistent story. The FBI’s 2025 data showed the largest year-to-year decline in violent crime since the agency began tracking national crime trends in 1936. Murder and non-negligent manslaughter declined by an estimated 18.1%.

The NCVS now provides an important second measure, reflecting the experiences of victims themselves.

What explains the decline? No serious analyst should pretend that a single policy produces every change in national crime. Crime rates are influenced by many factors, including local policing strategies, prosecution decisions, economic conditions, demographics, and community involvement. Preliminary survey results also cannot establish a definitive cause-and-effect relationship.

But policy choices matter. A president who makes securing the border a priority, removes violent illegal aliens who are subject to deportation, directs the Justice Department to cooperate with the nation’s approximately 18,000 police departments, 3,400 sheriffs’ offices, and 2,300 elected district attorneys, funds law enforcement, and supports victims is sending a clear message: the government’s first responsibility is to protect the innocent.

That message matters. Criminals should expect enforcement, not indulgence. Police officers should know that federal officials recognize the risks they face. Prosecutors should have the resources and cooperation necessary to hold dangerous offenders accountable. Victims should not be treated as an afterthought in a system more concerned with the comfort of defendants than the security of communities.

“This report is proof that President Trump’s ’Make America Safe Again’ agenda is working,” Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said, the No. 3 official in the Justice Department.

The statement captures the broader significance of the data, even if conclusions should await final estimates: public safety improves when government treats it as a core mission rather than a campaign slogan.

The lesson is straightforward. Effective enforcement, cooperation among federal, state, and local authorities, secure borders, adequately funded police departments, and meaningful support for victims are not outdated ideas. They are practical necessities.

Americans should celebrate these preliminary gains while remaining vigilant. The goal is not merely to report that crime has fallen. The goal is to ensure that it stays down — and that every community, regardless of size or location, receives the protection its residents deserve.

• Charles “Cully” Stimson is a senior research fellow at the Heritage Foundation and Acting Director of its Legal Policy Center.