SEOUL, South Korea — Taiwan’s annual military drills are focusing heavily on the resilience of the civilian population, as the predicted “window” for a communist Chinese invasion of the democratic island closes.
The annual Han Kuang defense exercises kicked off Wednesday in dramatic fashion, with video footage of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, in helmet and flak vest, being escorted out of his residence after dark, boarding an armored vehicle and being conveyed through Taipei’s streets.
The armored vehicle joined one of three convoys, supposedly to confuse enemy special forces intent upon assassinating the Taiwanese leader. His destination was the National Political and Military Operations Command Center, where Mr. Lai was shown being briefed by and giving instructions to military personnel.
The Han Kuang defense drills, which run through Aug. 14, are accelerating in urgency as the “Davidson window” closes: In 2021, U.S. Navy Adm. Philip Davidson warned that Chinese forces would be ready to capture Taiwan between 2021 and 2027.
That timeline was buttressed in 2024, when then-CIA Director William Burns claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping had ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be fully invasion-capable by 2027.
Many China watchers scoff at the idea of a Chinese invasion, but Mr. Lai — seen as the most anti-Beijing leader ever to take power in Taipei — endorsed the 2027 timeline during a press briefing in November.
Invasion scenarios
Taiwan has conducted the Han Kuang military exercises annually since 1984. (“Han Kuang” loosely translates to “Restoration of the Glory of the Han Chinese People” — a reference to the battle for legitimacy between Beijing and Taipei.)
Taiwan is the seat of anti-communist forces who fled from the mainland after being defeated in the Chinese Civil War by Mao Zedong’s forces in 1949.
Communist-led Beijing, home to 1.4 billion people and the world’s biggest armed forces, claims Taiwan under the internationally recognized “One China Policy,” regardless of the wishes of the 23 million people of the democratically governed island.
On Thursday, TV footage showed fully tactical Taiwanese troops dispersing from requisitioned civilian trains, taking up firing positions at a dock, setting up air-defense missile batteries and establishing defenses around an airport.
The airborne troops’ seizure of an airport, followed by rapid establishment and reinforcement of an “air bridge,” is one invasion scenario. (A similar operation at Kyiv’s Hostomel Airport was enacted for real in 2022, but ended in disaster for elite Russian paratroops.)
Yet more video showed Taiwanese tanks clattering through downtown streets, formations of helicopters overflying a city, and naval shore-defense missile launchers on trucks racing to the coast.
Coastal defense — with mines, drones and missiles — is critical to fend off any Normandy-style assault across the 100-mile-wide Taiwan Strait.
Offshore, naval units are practicing anti-blockade tactics. One scenario is, rather than or before an all-out attack, Chinese naval, coast guard or “maritime militia” units could attempt to cut the island off from its supply lines across the Pacific.
The X account of Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party’s U.S. Mission noted that “Reserve mobilization will also take place on an unprecedented scale,” with two brigades being called up and joining the exercises
But it is not just Mr. Lai, top brass, units and reservists who are being pressure-tested.
According to a Reuters report from the island, the drills will, for the first time, slow mobile internet speeds. The aim is to see how civilians respond to potential cyberstrikes that would drastically reduce bandwidth.
A civilian factory will also be mobilized in the exercises.
Local media Focus Taiwan reported before the drills’ commencement that the exercises will include “the establishment of underground medical facilities, civilian evacuations, medical evacuations to rear areas, joint transportation and logistics operations, and drone-based resupply, aiming to strengthen whole-of-society resilience.”
In recent years, as awareness of the threat grows, civilians have been taking private courses in such skills as survival, disaster communications and first aid.
However — due to Taiwan’s tough gun laws — no militias, of the kind which were of such import during the early stages of Ukraine’s 2022 defense against Russian invasion, can exist.
Who are Taiwan’s allies?
Taiwan relies upon, and anticipates U.S. armed support should the worst-case scenario ever erupt: U.S. laws require America to defend the island.
That expectation is now facing some challenges.
After meeting Mr. Xi in Beijing in May — and with Mr. Xi set to travel to the U.S. in September — President Trump has declined to approve a $14 billion U.S. arms package for the island.
Still, the U.S. is not the only interested player.
Indications are increasing that formerly pacifist Japan — whose strategic southwestern island chain, the Ryukyus, tails off just 70 miles from Taiwan’s east coast — may also play a role.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi stated in the Diet in November that a Taiwan contingency would be a “survival-threatening situation” for the nation.
The significance of her phrase was lost on nobody: The term legally triggers the activation of Japan’s increasingly powerful Self-Defense Forces.
China was infuriated, but Ms. Takaichi, a longtime defense hawk, has not withdrawn her remarks.
Her hard line follows that of her political mentor — the late Shinzo Abe, who engineered a reinterpretation of Japan’s pacifist constitution in 2014-2015 enabling “collective defense,” i.e., military operations to help allies such as the U.S. if they are attacked.
Taiwan was the only one of Japan’s wartime colonies that harbors positive memories of the Imperial era, something Mr. Abe, a nationalist, always recognized. A bronze statue of him now stands in a temple in southern Taiwan.
Japan’s 2026 Defense White Paper includes a section titled “Growing Tensions Over Taiwan.”
It focused on “gray zone” Chinese activity — subthreshold operations that do not involve kinetic strike — while warning that Beijing’s military is increasing its presence around the island.
In 2021, Beijing’s air force conducted 970 sorties in airspace surrounding the island, but by 2025, that number had leapt to about 2,600 sorties, the paper found.
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