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"If they want to significantly degrade al-Shabab at this level of effort, I just don't see it happening anytime soon," Mr. Roggio said. "We're looking at years, if not decades, because ultimately the Somali security forces — they may be able to clear areas, but their history of controlling areas they take is very poor."

Al-Shabab Somalia stronghold intact despite effort to defeat terror group →

"It's interesting that after five years he's finally decided to show his face. I think it's a recognition that things aren't going well for Islamic State," said Bill Roggio, a counterterrorism analyst with the Foundation for Defense of Democracies think tank. "But he's trying to put out the message that the group is still relevant and is still in the fight."

Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS leader, appears in video for first time in 5 years →

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