Israel is marking the third anniversary of the horrific Hamas-led Oct. 7, 2023, terrorist attacks, amid mounting uncertainty over the political fate of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in the nation’s upcoming Oct. 27 elections.

The Associated Press reports that Mr. Netanyahu’s opponents want him to pay for the failures that led to the deadliest day in Israel’s 78-year history and plunged the country into a series of inconclusive wars. Mr. Netanyahu’s defenders say he was betrayed by the military establishment and that he has led Israel through a dramatic rebound from its darkest hour.

A loss on Oct. 27 would likely end the career of the soon-to-be 77-year-old prime minister. A victory would mark the greatest turnaround yet for a man who has defied naysayers for three decades.

Suspected Russian drone attacks sank one commercial vessel and set fire to another in an area of the Black Sea controlled by NATO member Bulgaria on Tuesday in what appears to be the latest escalation of Russia’s hybrid war aimed at provoking the Western alliance.

The attacks occurred roughly 80 miles off Bulgaria’s coast. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said it was “part of Russia’s effort to make the western Black Sea completely unfit for navigation.” He said Ukraine’s Navy contacted its counterparts in Bulgaria, and “it has been established that this was a combined Russian attack using maritime and aerial drones.”

Tuesday’s developments come a day after Germany’s intelligence chief made global headlines with a warning that Russia’s expanding campaign of hybrid attacks targeting several European nations could lead to a full-scale conflict with NATO. Germany has accused Moscow of attempting to carry out an explosive drone attack on Leipzig airport in August.

China is more likely to cut undersea cables, use cyberattacks to shut down cell service and knock out internet service on Taiwan than to launch a military invasion or naval blockade, according to Foundation for Defense of Democracies experts who held a recent tabletop war game on the island.

Beijing is already ramping up “gray zone” warfare against Taiwan as part of a plan to coerce the annexation of the autonomously governed island democracy. The Chinese Communist Party’s pressure campaign is changing from episodic military exercises, limited cyber intrusions and occasional undersea cable disruptions to more persistent coercive strategic actions, Craig Singleton, director of FDD’s China Program, said in a briefing for reporters.

“China does not need a blockade or a quarantine or an invasion to create strategic pressure on Taiwan,” he said. “Communications disruption can impose costs on its own, amplify problems in sectors like energy and transportation and enable broader coercive or military operations.”

China has opened a foreign air force support center and is training pilots in Communist Laos — the latest thrust south by Beijing’s military, which is already training the armed forces of other Southeast Asian nations. 

The location China chose in Laos was once known as Lima Site 44, an isolated airstrip that played a key role in the CIA’s “secret war” and the U.S. carpet bombing of the tiny country during the Vietnam War more than 50 years ago. Chinese engineers have poured fresh concrete over Lima Site 44’s rustic red dirt airstrip to create a functioning airport with an expanded, durable runway.

Washington Times Correspondent Richard S. Ehrlich reports from Bangkok that Lao Defense Minister Khamlieng Outhakaysone and Chinese People’s Liberation Army officials recently inaugurated the center, which China’s Defense Ministry says “is not directed against any third party.” 

Qatar’s Foreign Ministry says mediators from Doha continue to ferry messages between Iranian and U.S. negotiators amid an ongoing diplomatic push by both sides for what could become a lasting ceasefire in the war that now includes clashes between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.

The prospects are dim, however, that Iranian hard-liners will embrace a major peace deal or relinquish Tehran’s nuclear program. Euronews reports that a group of hard-line members of the Iranian parliament has filed a motion to impeach Mr. Araghchi over his talks with Mr. Witkoff on the sidelines of last month’s General Assembly.

U.S. military forces, meanwhile, are maintaining a naval blockade of Iran that the Pentagon says has halted Tehran’s ability to export oil. American forces are also conducting escort missions in the Strait of Hormuz to improve traffic flow. Reports on Tuesday indicated that commercial traffic in the waterway is approaching 80% of prewar levels as ships move through Omani waters near the south of the strait.

• Oct. 7 — 25 Years Since the Anthrax Attacks: Where Are We Now? Center for Strategic & International Studies

• Oct. 8 — The Middle East Beyond the Iran War, Middle East Institute

• Oct. 12-14 — AUSA Annual Meeting and Expo, Association of the U.S. Army

• Oct. 15 — The Rise and Fall of the U.S.-Pakistan Relationship After 9/11, Stimson Center

• Oct. 21 — A Discussion with U.S. Ambassador to the European Union Andrew Puzder, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 20-22 — Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, HFX