Its regime is still standing. Its nuclear program still exists, as does its ballistic missile program. It can still threaten U.S. bases in the Mideast and its regional neighbors. It stands to gain access to huge sums of money in a potential deal with the Trump administration.

So, is there a case to be made that Iran has actually won the war against the U.S.?

On the latest episode of the Threat Status podcast, Alex Vatanka explains in detail why leaders in Tehran believe exactly that. Mr. Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute and one of Washington’s leading voices on all things Iran, says Tehran entered the conflict with very clear and limited expectations for victory.

“Iran right now feels they have won this war, essentially,” Mr. Vatanka said. “Winning for Iran was always something very specific, which means for them, regime survival. They weren’t aiming for the sky. Regime survival is winning.”

Billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets. The fate of a nuclear program that was the central reason the U.S. and Israel launched attacks on Iran in the first place. And a controversial $300 billion reconstruction fund to rebuild the Mideast nation devastated by months of war.

Those are a few of the most consequential issues facing U.S. and Iranian negotiators over the next few months as both sides look to end the war and get the best deal possible. Foreign Affairs Correspondent Vaughn Cockayne explains those and other complex matters that negotiators must hammer out before reaching any final, lasting agreement.

Here’s one example of the gulfs that still need to be crossed: There is wide public disagreement over possible sanctions relief, with Iranian officials asserting that Western sanctions relief is all but guaranteed. But Trump administration officials have reassured critics that Tehran will not see any relief unless it complies with certain U.S. demands.

Six months after Mr. Trump announced his new Board of Peace, the new Gaza authority has not entered the war-torn Palestinian enclave — or stripped Iran-backed terrorist group Hamas of a single one of its governing powers there.

That’s the cold reality in Gaza, where Hamas still holds significant power despite years of a crushing Israeli military campaign that began shortly after the Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on the Jewish state.

Contributor Waseem Abu Mahadi has a fresh dispatch examining last week’s Board of Peace closed-door meeting in Cyprus, where the international body tried to hash out a plan for installing its new strategy to rebuild and secure Gaza in a post-Hamas world.

But that world hasn’t materialized, and Hamas remains a defining force in the strip. When Palestinian activists called for pro-peace demonstrations in 18 locations across Gaza on June 26, the rallies largely failed to materialize. Hamas deployed armed militants to key intersections and launched an intimidation campaign to undermine the protests.

Mr. Trump is set to arrive in Ankara, Turkey, on Tuesday for a major summit of NATO allies. The gathering offers Mr. Trump a rare in-person opportunity to lean on European allies lagging on defense spending, as well as a chance to showcase his administration’s embrace of this year’s host, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The president is expected to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa before his scheduled news conference and departure Wednesday. The Trump administration’s ongoing negotiations with Iran also should be a key topic at the meeting. Mr. Trump is also expected to once again prod European nations to spend more on their own defense. 

Behind the scenes, sources tell Threat Status that NATO leaders are likely to push for clarity on America’s future force posture in Europe, which is the subject of a major Pentagon review.

Losing Taiwan to the Chinese Communist Party — which believes it has a legitimate claim to the island democracy — would destroy the economy and plunge the world into a depression. And the U.S. must help ensure that doesn’t happen.

That’s the argument from Rep. John Moolenaar, Michigan Republican and chairman of the House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition Between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party. In an op-ed for The Washington Times, Mr. Moolenaar writes the U.S. must focus on having the necessary pieces in place to deter a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Beijing must realize, he argues, that such an operation would be a mistake.

“As the CCP escalates its coercive behavior and aggression against Taiwan, we must rebuild our defense industrial base, work with our allies and like-minded partners, strengthen our defenses against the CCP and ensure the prosperous status quo continues,” Mr. Moolenaar writes.

• July 7 — Sixteenth Annual South China Sea Conference, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• July 7 — Bolivia’s Foreign Minister on the Path Ahead, Atlantic Council

• July 7 — Was the Iran War Worth It? Assessing Costs, Benefits and U.S. Interests, Stimson Center

• July 8 — Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency Proposers Day: Lightweight Universal Codec Program, DARPA

• July 8-9 — Military Robotics and Autonomous Systems USA Conference, SAE Media Group

• July 10 — Taiwan’s Institutional Defense: Countering Chinese Communist Party Infiltration and Transnational Repression, Hudson Institute

• July 14 — Strategic Landpower Dialogue: A Conversation with Lt. Gen. Frank Lozano, Center for Strategic and International Studies 

• July 14-17 — Aspen Security Forum, Aspen Strategy Group

• July 15 — The Future of U.S. Foreign Policy in the Middle East with Rep. Mike Lawler, Hudson Institute 

• Aug. 4-5 — Air and Space Force Procurement Conference, American Defense Alliance