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Threat Status for Tuesday, November 3, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Correspondent Ben Wolfgang.

The U.S. launched new strikes against Iran just hours before Election Day in America.

… The attacks on the islands of Qeshm and Hengam in the Strait of Hormuz are believed to have targeted Iranian surface-to-air missile capabilities. Tehran said it shot down several U.S. drones.

… President Trump said the roughly $4 billion in annual U.S. aid to Israel will be cut off at the end of this year.

… Russia launched a massive drone and missile attack against Ukraine overnight, killing at least 31 people in strikes on an aid station and other sites.

… The Russian barrage comes just days after the Trump administration approved a $2 billion sale of Patriot missile defense batteries to Ukraine.

… Questions are swirling about who is responsible for the suspected cyberattacks on European supermarkets and U.S. military base commissaries.

… North Korea denied involvement in the $6 billion hack of leading cryptocurrency exchange Binance. The FBI says Pyongyang is responsible.

… And here’s one key Election Day subplot to watch: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth recently said the military will protect the midterm contests from “external manipulation and disruption from foreign actors.”

Cyberattacks on European supermarkets, U.S. military commissaries may be connected

Destroyed refrigerated goods are being thrown away from powerless freezers at ICA Baronen store on Odengatan in Stockholm, Monday, Nov. 2, 2026, as some of stores have suffered problems with their refrigerators and freezers overnight. (Fredrik Sandberg/TT News Agency via AP)

Are there links between the apparent hacks of European grocery stores and suspected cyberattacks targeting commissaries on U.S. military bases? Defense and National Security Correspondent John T. Seward explains why the similar nature of the incidents has set off alarm bells inside national security circles.

The suspected hacks this week targeted grocery stores in Belgium, Sweden, Ireland and Estonia. A similar attack hit France last month, when hackers sent temperatures soaring in the refrigeration units of hundreds of supermarkets and independent stores. Supermarkets in at least seven countries have reported malfunctioning refrigerators and freezers.

The attacks match those that the Defense Department is investigating after widespread freezer outages hit several domestic military installations in August and again last month.

Nikita Shah, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who specializes in cyberthreats, told Mr. Seward that a political dynamic could be at play. Many of the targeted countries support Ukraine in its war with Russia.

Will the U.S. launch more attacks on Iran?

A bird flies low over the water as cargo ships lie at anchor in the Strait of Hormuz off Bandar Abbas, Iran, early Saturday, Oct. 24, 2026. (Amirhosein Khorgooi/ISNA via AP)

The latest U.S. attacks on Iran, which came just hours before Election Day, will fuel questions about whether the Trump administration is on the verge of fully reigniting the conflict.

Late Monday, the U.S. carried out what were described as limited defensive strikes against Iran’s Qeshm Island.

It is unclear what exactly triggered the strikes. Some reports indicate that Iran fired on a U.S. aircraft in the region, while others say Tehran was preparing to use surface-to-air missiles on American assets. The strikes are believed to have targeted Iranian surface-to-air missile capabilities.

During the confrontation, Iranian forces said they shot down several U.S. Low-cost Uncrewed Combat Attack System, or LUCAS, drones. Those reports could not immediately be confirmed.

Did the ‘Islamization of Israel’ impact the country's election?

People gather outside a polling station beside campaign posters, including one depicting Benjamin Netanyahu, during Israel's general election in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

Threat Status Correspondent Jacob Wirtschafter has a fascinating deep dive into one of the key political subplots of Israel’s recent elections: Did foreign actors affect the contest and drive setbacks for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his Likud party?

The party said the record turnout that yielded 19 Arab-controlled seats — a net gain of nine — was driven by foreign actors seeking the “Islamization of Israel” and the overthrow of right-wing rule. But the argument faced pushback almost immediately. Police quickly released two suspects accused of bribing voters, while a top judge said the irregularities cited by Likud, even if substantiated, would not be enough to overturn the results.

Here’s why it matters: The 19 Arab-controlled seats in the Knesset are enough, on paper at least, to form a ruling coalition with supporters of either Mr. Netanyahu or top challenger Gadi Eisenkot, an opposition leader whose Yashar bloc is competing to form the next government.

The next government of Israel will face key decisions about whether to resume hostilities against Iran. That, of course, could impact the U.S. and its next military steps in the region.

Tokyo's tells U.S. troops on Okinawa to behave

Japan's Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi speaks with media at the headquarters of the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force Yokosuka District, south of Tokyo, on Jan. 30, 2026. (AP Photo/Eugene Hoshiko, Pool, File)

Two power players in Tokyo urged the U.S. to instill better discipline among its troops on Okinawa, an unusually direct message from the government of a critical American ally.

That message from Chief Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara and Defense Minister Shinjiro Koizumi came after a U.S. Marine was arrested over the weekend and accused of driving under the influence and breaking a midnight curfew by about 25 minutes.

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon explains that while such alleged offenses normally wouldn’t prompt such a high-level Japanese response, there’s a reason it’s being handled differently now. The incident comes on the heels of the Oct. 4 arrest of Marine Lance Cpl. Devin Ballard in the death of a local woman at a hotel in Naha, Okinawa’s capital.

Opinion: China's Confucius Institutes still active in K-12 schools

Undergraduate student Moe Lewis, left, shows her watercolor painting of peony leaves at a traditional Chinese painting class at the Confucius Institute at George Mason University in Fairfax, Va., on May 2, 2018. U.S. lawmakers are pushing for tighter regulation or even closure of the more than 100 Chinese Confucius Institutes set up on campuses across America. But for university students, they offer a chance to learn about Chinese language and art. (AP Photo/Matthew Pennington)

The reach of China’s Confucius Institutes — a key tool for the Chinese Communist Party’s soft power offensive inside America — has extended beyond college campuses and into K-12 classrooms.

Jennifer Richmond, an education adviser, China specialist and deputy director of education and national security at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explains in detail how initiatives such as “Confucius Classrooms” remain alive and well even as the U.S. takes aim at the Confucius Institutes on college campuses.

“Take, for example, the Center for Bridging Cultures. Its director, Gao Qing, is the former head of the Confucius Institute U.S. Center, which the State Department described as ‘the de facto headquarters of the Confucius Institute Network,’” she writes. “From China’s perspective, Center for Bridging Cultures is the functional equivalent of a Confucius Institute.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Nov. 4 — The Return of the Nuclear Sea-Launched Cruise Missile (SLCM-N) | HTK, Center for Strategic and International Studies 

• Nov. 5 — Israel After the Elections: What’s Next for U.S.-Israel Relations? Brookings Institution 

• Nov. 10 — China, America and the Fragmentation of the Global Economy: A Conversation with Aaron Friedberg, American Enterprise Institute

• Nov. 10 — 2026 Homeland Security Summit, Potomac Officers Club

• Nov. 10 — Elisabeth Braw on ‘Undersea War’ and the Battle Over Cables and Pipelines, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 16 — The Black Sea Blueprint for Taiwan: Lessons in Asymmetric Naval Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 17 — Special Threat Status Event: The Golden Age of Space, Threat Status

• Nov. 18 — Rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom and Reindustrializing America, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 20-22 — Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, HFX

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If you’ve got questions, Guy Taylor and Ben Wolfgang are here to answer them.