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Threat Status for Wednesday, October 28, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends, who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Israel’s election was close, and it is not yet clear whether Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will be able to form a coalition government.

… Speculation is surging over how the political uncertainty in Jerusalem may impact the U.S.-Israel war with Iran.

… American officials are telling Gulf Arab countries to prepare for a short, intense campaign against Iran after Tuesday’s midterm elections in the U.S.

… Threat Status’ John T. Seward is on the ground in the Philippines with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

… Andy Lowery, CEO of the California-based defense tech company Epirus, joined the Threat Status podcast to examine what air superiority really means in the age of drones.

… Rep. Jamie Raskin, Maryland Democrat, is warning companies they’ll be in “violation of federal law” if they help President Trump’s deal to import Russian diesel.

… The U.N. is holding its annual vote on condemning the decades-old U.S. embargo on Cuba.

… And a new memorial has been dedicated on the National Mall to honor those who fought and died in the early-1990s Gulf War.

Will Netanyahu be able to form a government?

A voter casts his ballot at a school used as a polling station during Israel's general election in Tel Aviv, Israel, Tuesday, Oct. 27, 2026. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party won the largest share of the vote in Tuesday’s elections, but neither Mr. Netanyahu nor former Israel Defense Forces Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot has a clear path to forming a government. Both men claimed victory, though assembling a governing coalition in Israel’s fragmented, multiparty parliamentary system could take weeks or might not happen at all, which would require another election.

With more than 4 million votes counted as of Wednesday morning, a Likud-led bloc of parties was projected to hold 53 seats in parliament. An opposition bloc headed by Mr. Eisenkot was projected to hold 49 seats, while Arab parties were projected to hold 17 seats.

Mr. Trump told reporters Wednesday morning that he believed his endorsement of Mr. Netanyahu helped the prime minister perform better than expected. Speculation is surging over how the uncertain result may impact the ongoing U.S.-Israel war against Iran.

Hegseth in Asia as Pentagon describes China as 'pacing threat'

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth greets Undersecretary for Strategic Assessment and Planning at the Department of National Defense of the Philippines, Ignacio Madriaga, U.S. Ambassador to the Philippines Lee Lipton, and other international defense officials at the Mactan-Cebu International Airport in Cebu, Philippines, on Oct. 27, 2026. (DOW photo by U.S. Air Force Master Sgt. Brycen Guerrero)

Mr. Hegseth is in the Philippines this week attending an Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) defense ministers gathering. Mr. Seward, who is traveling with Mr. Hegseth, reports that the trip comes as the Pentagon is balancing multiple hot zones around the world — most notably the war in Iran — even as it looks to bolster regional deterrence against China’s increasing military ambitions in the Pacific.

The Pentagon said in a statement that Mr. Hegseth’s focus at ASEAN meetings Wednesday and Thursday will be “to reaffirm America’s commitment to peace through strength in the Pacific” while pushing to “strengthen deterrence, advance key alliances and partnerships, and expand burden-sharing across the region.”

The Chinese Communist Party’s stated goal of taking control of the U.S.-aligned island democracy of Taiwan, by force if necessary, hangs over the gathering. Many in the region see a rising threat of “gray zone” tactics by Beijing, including maritime harassment, aerial intimidation, cyberattacks and damage to undersea infrastructure.

South Korean president quietly warming up to Putin

South Korean President Lee Jae-myung speaks during a press conference at the presidential Blue House in Seoul, South Korea, Friday, Sept. 18, 2026. (AP Photo/Ahn Young-joon, Pool)

North Korea’s new ties to Russia have been well reported, but Kim Jong-un apparently is not the only Korean leader cozying up to Russian President Vladimir Putin. The administration of South Korean President Lee Jae-myung has surprised international analysts in recent weeks with a series of moves that signal warming relations with Moscow.

Asia Editor Andrew Salmon reports from Seoul that Mr. Lee’s moves have included facilitating the sale of Russian fuel, a new trade route deal using Russia’s Arctic sea lanes and an escalating South Korean diplomatic feud with Ukraine.

Analysts are split on whether the South Korean president may be trying to get Russia’s help in opening a door to renewed diplomacy between Seoul and Pyongyang. “President Lee has a liking for authoritarian leaders like Putin and [Chinese President] Xi [Jinping],” according to Fyodor Tertitskiy, a Moscow-born historian with Seoul’s Korea University. “And he would be ecstatic to meet Kim Jong-un — if he could.”

Opinion: Iran’s threats against Americans demand a serious response

Defeating Iran's terrorist regime illustration by Linas Garsys / The Washington Times

If the U.S. restarts its bombing campaign against Iran after the midterm elections, as the president has said he might, Iran has “threatened strikes not only on American bases and warships but also on airports, pipelines and other civilian targets,” writes Jed Babbin in his opinion column for The Washington Times.

“The regime has said it would extend targets, as it has in the past, to neighboring countries of the Persian Gulf. Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and other countries would expect to be hit,” Mr. Babbin writes.

“Iran has an unknown number of ballistic missiles and an apparently inexhaustible quantity of drones. Although significantly damaged by U.S. and Israeli bombing, Iran has probably half its missile supply left,” he writes. “The number of remaining missiles is estimated to be 1,500 to 2,000, and the drone supply is at least as large. Both, we should suspect, are being resupplied by Russia and China.”

Opinion: Treat China-owned Syngenta as a national security problem

The Syngenta logo is seen outside the company's headquarters, Feb. 7, 2007, in Basel, Switzerland. (Georgios Kefalas/Keystone via AP, File)

Syngenta, one of the world’s largest agricultural seed and crop protection companies and a major American agricultural supplier, has become an “instrument of the Chinese state” since being acquired by ChemChina in 2017, according to Adam Savit, director of the China Policy Initiative at the America First Policy Institute.

“When the deal cleared U.S. national security review in 2016, under the Obama administration, CCP control over a major American agricultural supplier could be dismissed as theoretical,” Mr. Savit writes in an op-ed for The Times. “Since then, a decade of civil-military fusion, Chinese laws compelling corporate cooperation with the state and now a Sinochem executive in the driver’s seat have made the risks concrete.

“Control and executive authority matter precisely because of what Syngenta owns,” he writes. “The Trump administration has established that the inputs to American food are a national security concern. The National Farm Security Action Plan rests on the premise that farm security is national security.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Oct. 28-29 — China’s Power: Up for Debate 2026, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Oct. 30 — Gen. Dagvin R.M. Anderson, Commander of U.S. Africa Command, on U.S. Strategy and Security in Africa, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 2 — AI Power and National Security Conference: Open Models, Governance and U.S.-China Military Competition, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 16 — The Black Sea Blueprint for Taiwan: Lessons in Asymmetric Naval Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 17 — Special Threat Status Event: The Golden Age of Space, Threat Status

• Nov. 18 — Rebuilding the Arsenal of Freedom and Reindustrializing America, Hudson Institute

• Nov. 20-22 — Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, HFX

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