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Threat Status for Monday, October 26, 2026. Share this daily newsletter with your friends who can sign up here. Send tips to National Security Editor Guy Taylor.

Protesters waving Palestinian flags stormed the Colosseum in Rome, demonstrators looted shops in Barcelona and masked rioters hurled rocks, bottles and fireworks at police in Paris as another weekend of unrest unfolded across Europe.

… How will the election victory of Brazil’s left-wing president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, impact the Trump-aligned rightward shift in South American politics?

… The U.S. Army has activated an air defense artillery battalion on Guam amid increasingly sophisticated air and missile threats from China and North Korea.

… Questions are swirling over who will emerge as Serbia’s next prime minister following the election defeat of strongman Aleksandar Vucic.

… Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado has returned to the country after nearly 11 months of exile.

… The U.S. Treasury Department is expanding restrictions on foreign advanced tech investment in China.

… Anduril Industries co-founder Palmer Luckey and Colossal Biosciences co-founder Ben Lamm want to deliver genetically enhanced working dogs to the U.S. military and law enforcement.

… And North Korean leader Kim Jong-un made a rare trip into China across the Yalu River over the weekend.

Inside the high stakes of Israel's election

A pedestrian passes a campaign billboard featuring Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, left, and his main rival, opposition candidate Gadi Eisenkot, with a message in Hebrew that reads "The race is tight," Friday, Oct. 23, 2026, in Tel Aviv, Israel. (AP Photo/David Goldman)

Voters go to the polls Tuesday in Israel to decide whether to stay the course with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or turn to opposition leader Gadi Eisenkot. The outcome of the election could dramatically impact the direction of the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, which has been shaped by the close, albeit at times contentious, relationship between Mr. Netanyahu and President Trump.

The U.S. government provides billions of dollars in foreign military aid to Israel every year. The outcome of the election will determine how closely the incoming government in Jerusalem aligns with U.S. strategic objectives.

American presidents generally refrain from explicitly endorsing candidates or leaders in foreign elections. But that hasn’t stopped Mr. Trump from offering his full-throated support to Mr. Netanyahu. On Oct. 18, Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social that his Israeli counterpart was a “Great Warrior Prime Minister” and an indispensable partner against Iran.

Great power U.S.-China-Russia summit coming into focus

Russian President Vladimir Putin, center-left, Russian presidential foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov, left, and Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Kirill Dmitriev, right, attend talks with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff, right back to a camera, and Jared Kushner, U.S. President Donald Trump’s son-in-law, left back to a camera, in Moscow, on Dec. 2, 2025. (Alexander Kazakov, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP, File)

A top Kremlin official told Russia’s state-affiliated media outlet Vesti on Sunday that preparations are underway for a trilateral summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Mr. Trump. The official, Yuri Ushakov, indicated the Ukraine war will be a key focus of the summit.

While the timing and location of the summit remain unknown, speculation is swirling that it could occur on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation gathering scheduled for Nov. 18-19 in Shenzhen, China. There are indications U.S. and Russian officials will first hold talks with Ukrainian and European officials in the United Arab Emirates in early November.

Russia and Ukraine have signaled new openness to negotiations amid a renewed push by the Trump administration in recent weeks. Mr. Ushakov said Sunday that Mr. Putin has agreed “in principle” to begin peace discussions. Mr. Ushakov said Europe needs to be part of the talks. “That’s because it’s not enough to talk only to Kyiv,” he said. “We need to talk to the whole of Europe, which fully supports Kyiv.”

Tehran vows to stay course; U.S. intel warns of threat to personnel overseas

Iranian missiles and banners showing portraits of the Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, right, and the late armed forces commanders, who were killed in Israeli and U.S. strikes, are displayed in a military exhibition commemorating the anniversary of the start of the 1980-88 Iraq-Iran war at Baharestan Square, in Tehran, Monday, Sept. 28, 2026. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)

Iran’s foreign minister said Sunday the threat of renewed U.S. airstrikes will not change Tehran’s calculus, a defiant message at a moment when Trump administration officials are warning that the Iranian regime’s military tactics are shifting to focus on attacks on American personnel stationed overseas and potentially inside the United States.

A leaked memo Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton sent Friday to Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that U.S. intelligence has determined Iran is in the “advanced stages” of planning such attacks. “Iran has substantially increased efforts to target U.S. personnel,” the memo reads. “The lethal plotting efforts by the Iranians against U.S. citizens have reached advanced stages in both the Middle East and certain other countries.”

News of the memo came days after Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi published an op-ed in the Financial Times, asserting Tehran “seeks a just and honorable deal with the U.S.” but has “no trust whatsoever in the sincerity of the U.S. administration’s professed desire for peace with Iran.” Reports indicated the State Department is rushing to move some U.S. diplomats and their family members from posts in the Middle East.

Pentagon: China’s Confucius Institutes are national security threat

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth speaks at a roundtable event with President Donald Trump in the East Room of the White House, Wednesday, Oct. 21, 2026, in Washington. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

The Pentagon is designating China’s Confucius Institutes as threats to U.S. national security. The institutes, which have a history of providing lucrative funding to American universities, already had their operations curtailed by Congress.

Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth is now circulating a video online claiming the institutes remain active in the United States as “Chinese government-backed propaganda cultural programs” operating as “sleeper” cells that infiltrated U.S. universities in nearly every state.

The Pentagon has added the institutes to a blacklist of Chinese, Russian and Iranian entities engaged in threatening activities. The list is called the 1286 list after the section of a 2019 law requiring the restrictions. The Pentagon says U.S. universities and research institutes that engage in any collaboration with the listed entities will be stripped of any defense funding.

Opinion: State Department missteps on countering Russian propaganda

Fighting propaganda against democracy around the world illustration by Alexander Hunter/The Washington Times

Elements within the Trump administration recently opposed a provocative scheduled panel on the question of whether the United States itself has become a source of disinformation at DISINFO2026, an international summit in Lithuania, according to Josh “Bugsy” Segal. 

Mr. Segal, a retired Navy information warfare officer, writes in an op-ed for The Washington Times that the summit “was designed as a platform for international experts to collaborate and exchange research to combat the sophisticated tactics Russia uses in information warfare.”

“Instead of fostering a vibrant and productive debate, the proceedings were overshadowed by an unprecedented attempt to suppress meaningful dialogue,” writes Mr. Segal, who argues that “after this unfortunate misstep, the Trump administration now has a critical opportunity to advance its real priorities and reconnect with those alienated by the protest.”

Threat Status Events Radar

• Oct. 27 — Chemistry of Combat: Rebuilding America’s Energetics Base, Hudson Institute

• Oct. 28-29 — China’s Power: Up for Debate 2026, Center for Strategic and International Studies

• Oct. 30 — Gen. Dagvin R.M. Anderson, Commander of U.S. Africa Command, on U.S. Strategy and Security in Africa, Atlantic Council

• Nov. 16 — The Black Sea Blueprint for Taiwan: Lessons in Asymmetric Naval Warfare, Foundation for Defense of Democracies

• Nov. 17 — Special Threat Status Event: The Golden Age of Space, Threat Status

• Nov. 20-22 — Halifax International Security Forum in Nova Scotia, Canada, HFX

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