OPINION:
Now that the celebrations over the midterms have died down in Iran and Qatar — and everywhere else our enemies lurk — what will President Trump do with the Iranians, and what will they do with him?
Mr. Trump is caught between advisers advocating peace talks — Vice President J.D. Vance and Steve Witkoff — and those advocating a resumption of the bombing campaign, such as Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth and Adm. Brad Cooper, commander of CENTCOM.
Mr. Witkoff and his negotiating partner, Jared Kushner, have not been effective in bringing the peace talks to a conclusion. The reason — which they may not realize even at this terribly late date — is that Iran has no intention of agreeing to anything on Mr. Trump’s terms.
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Although Mr. Trump still insists that Iran wants a peace deal, the regime has restated its usual demands. Its nuclear proposal — the details of which are not clear — will surely enable it to develop nuclear weapons.
In addition, Iran wants a permanent peace, a U.S. withdrawal from the region and an end to the U.S. blockade of its ports. Mr. Trump would be foolish to enter into any such agreement, and he knows that. Why, then, continue to insist that Iran wants a peace deal?
The Iranians will continue to rebuild Hamas, Hezbollah and the Houthis. They will continue, through the Houthis and perhaps directly, to attack Saudi oil facilities. All will continue to attack Israel despite Mr. Trump’s ending some $8 billion in aid to the Israelis.
Ending that aid was a foolish move by Mr. Trump, especially after citing the Senate campaign of Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan. The Israeli economy, although strong, is not secure enough for us to suddenly cut off aid to it. Billions of arms orders depend on those subsidies, which Israel will not be able to replace.
The truth of it is that Israel has been fighting our enemies since its modern birth. As Secretary of State Marco Rubio has said, radical Islam is a clear and imminent threat to the United States and the broader West. Iran has been a major part of that threat since 1979.
The Iranians are bragging that their missiles can reach Europe, but they are unlikely to attack the Europeans for fear of an overwhelming U.S. response. A U.S. response remains likely, however, because while Mr. Trump has signaled ambivalence about NATO’s defense against Russia, he has not given the Iranians open license to attack Europe.
If any NATO nation were attacked by Iran, we would have to respond.
Mr. Trump has said he will make a decision on Iran soon. His choices are bleak. Either he can resume the bombing campaign and destroy the Iranian regime, or he can allow it to continue to develop nuclear weapons. Those are the only options.
Enabling Iran to resume nuclear production would mean abandoning Israel. Neither Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who favors a resumption of the bombing campaign, nor his possible successors will stand for the Iranian resumption of nuclear development or production.
They will, if need be, strike at Iran with the aim of toppling the regime. They have no other choice.
Already, the Iranians are saying that they can make Israel uninhabitable with dirty bombs and chemical weapons. That may be an empty boast on their part, but Israel cannot take the risk.
Iran knows it is in the driver’s seat in the war. Mr. Trump has said that resuming major military action against Iran is “highly unlikely.” The midterms have left him blaming the Iran war for his party’s losses.
Mr. Vance, looking more and more like an isolationist, has said we must change our relationship with Israel and seems to blame the Jewish state for war and Republican election losses.
Mr. Trump is far from powerless, but as the Democrats take control of appropriations and try to undercut him with the War Powers Act, he will be greatly diminished.
A great man — my father — told me that Americans do not start wars; we end them. That means ending them on our terms, not the enemies’.
All this boils down to whether we leave Israel with an existential threat to us and the world — one with which Israel may not be able to cope. If Mr. Trump chooses that course of action, the results will be his responsibility and his alone.
It is not a legacy that any American president would wish for.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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