OPINION:
Most historians agree that the Versailles Treaty, which ended World War I, sowed the seeds of World War II.
It forced Germany to accept all the blame for the war and pay enormous indemnities (which the German nation could not pay), both of which Adolf Hitler used as propaganda to gain power.
We are on the verge of another treaty, which we should call Versailles 2.0 — and not because it imposes any blame or indemnities on Iran for the war.
To the contrary, the memorandum of understanding, which supposedly ends hostilities, takes an all-carrot-and-no-stick approach to Tehran, sowing the seeds of another war as surely as did the Versailles Treaty.
The memorandum of understanding lavishes sanctions relief and an end to the U.S. blockade and more on Iran. It also mentions a $300 billion rebuilding fund for Iran, with the funding mechanism left to a 60-day negotiation.
We should observe the clear separation between Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, both of whom were fervent supporters of President Trump. Now, only one, Mr. Vance, remains vocal in support of the memorandum of understanding.
In Winston Churchill’s “The Gathering Storm,” the first book in his six-volume history of World War II, virtually the first words are, “How the English-speaking peoples, through their unwisdom, carelessness, and good nature allowed the wicked to rearm.”
Exactly that same “unwisdom” characterizes the memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran.
Mr. Trump has said that it would be unfair to Iran to have it give up its ballistic missile program because Qatar and Saudi Arabia have missiles. We have thus given up the effort to restrain Iran’s missile capability.
Far worse, the memorandum of understanding, because we did not cause the overthrow of the Tehran regime, leaves undecided how, when and whether Iran will give up its nuclear weapons program. Iran promises to not develop or obtain nuclear weapons, but its promises — dating back to the “fatwa” against them by Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, first publicly announced in 2003 — are entirely false.
Iran has been lying about developing nuclear weapons since the early 1980s. It can be expected to continue to lie and to develop nuclear weapons at the earliest opportunity.
As expected, Mr. Rubio has been silent on the memorandum of understanding. Mr. Vance has not.
Mr. Rubio knows that the memorandum of understanding is a bad deal for American and Israeli national security. He will expect Iran to develop nuclear weapons.
Both The Wall Street Journal and this newspaper have been highly critical of the memorandum of understanding. As this newspaper has editorialized, “Yet for the past 48 years, Iran has not lived up to any agreement it has ever signed.”
We can expect the same from this agreement, and we must.
Mr. Rubio has said, in answer to a question about the Iranian foreign minister accusing America and Israel of genocide, “He’s an expert in genocide. They’re experts in that because they sponsor terrorism all over the world, and they’ve killed thousands and thousands of people. … Every problem in the Middle East tracks back to Iran.”
On the other hand, Mr. Vance has suggested Iran could yet become a “normal country” if it changes its behavior, which has not been true since the ayatollahs’ regime took power. Iran is a revolutionary power composed of religious fanatics dedicated to nuclear weapons and terrorism.
It has killed Americans and sponsored terrorist proxies — Hamas and Hezbollah — consistently. These groups follow the ayatollahs’ orders, which will continue to sow terrorism in the Middle East and around the world.
Iran has again declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, seeking to overturn the world’s oil economy. It blames Israel for a ceasefire violation because the Jewish state has responded to attacks by Hezbollah.
Mr. Vance has said, “I think that they see there’s a real opportunity here to turn over a new leaf so long as they do the right thing.” He has also said that the memorandum of understanding represents a “new day,” suggesting that Iran will turn over a new leaf, which it will not.
He later added, “What today really represents is the beginning of a technical negotiation that’s not going to solve every disagreement, but it’s going to allow us to sit together as teams for the first time, really, in history to figure out what matters most to the respective parties, to settle those issues, to solve those issues, and get to a better tomorrow.”
There cannot be a “better tomorrow” while the ayatollahs’ regime stands. We must expect Iran to rearm with nuclear weapons because of our unwisdom in signing the memorandum of understanding.
The memorandum of understanding cannot be characterized as Versailles 2.0, but the results will be the same.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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