Vermont sees more cases in 5 days than from May to September

Vermont has seen more new coronavirus cases in the past five days than it did from May through September, officials said Tuesday.

The increase follows a spike in cases after Christmas, but it’s too soon to say whether there has been a similar spike following the New Year’s holiday.

Nevertheless, officials expect the number of new cases of the virus to increase from the current average of more than 160 cases a day to nearly 300 by early February, said Mike Pieciak, the Vermont commissioner of financial regulation, who manages COVID-19 statistics for the state.

During a regular twice-weekly virus briefing, Gov. Phil Scott and others urged Vermonters to follow long-standing guidance designed to reduce transmission of the virus, wearing masks, maintaining social distance and avoiding crowds.

“The decisions that we all make today, both large and small - following the public health guidance and doing all of those things to protect ourselves and our families and our communities - will help ensure that we beat this estimated forecast,” Pieciak said Tuesday after outlining the statistics.

The increase comes as the state continues with its plan to vaccinate health care professionals and older adults living in long-term care facilities - people who are at the greatest risk of death from COVID-19. State officials are expected to outline this week their plans to continue the vaccination program focusing on the oldest, and most vulnerable, Vermonters first.

The same statistics show that Vermont is tied for first among Northeastern states and tied for sixth in the nation for the rate of administration of vaccines to the population.

Health Commissioner Dr. Mark Levine said that it would still probably be another month or so before the vaccine takes full effect, and that the number of cases in long-term care facilities show significant declines in COVID-19 infections among residents and staff.

Still, health officials are not seeing significant growth in cases in facilities where COVID-19 infections have been reported, although that process began before the vaccination program began last month.

“That’s favorable news,” Levine said. “If we can prevent new facilities from becoming added to that list because of the haste with which we are trying to address (with vaccines) all of the long-term care facilities, the skilled nursing facilities, assisted living and the residential care, then that will have been a great success.”

Despite the increases, Vermont continues to have some of the most favorable rankings in the country on a number of key measures, including the positivity rate, hospitalizations, new cases and fatalities.

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NUMBERS

The Vermont Health Department on Tuesday reported 167 new cases of the virus, bringing the statewide total since the pandemic began to almost 9,250.

There are 51 people hospitalized, including 10 in intensive care.

The state reported two additional deaths Tuesday, bringing the statewide total to 158.

The latest average positivity rate in Vermont is 2.47%. State health departments are calculating positivity rate differently across the country, but for Vermont the AP calculates the rate by dividing new cases by test specimens using data from The COVID Tracking Project.

The seven-day rolling average of the positivity rate in Vermont has risen over the past two weeks from 2.06% on Dec. 28 to 2.47% on Jan. 11.

The seven-day rolling average of daily new cases in Vermont has risen over the past two weeks from 83.71 new cases Dec. 28 to 172.14 on Jan. 11.