A new round of polls this week from the Trafalgar Group has President Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Joseph R. Biden in Florida, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Michigan, showing Mr. Trump’s 2016 path to victory has not yet been upset.
The two candidates are also in an incredibly tight race for Wisconsin, according to a recent survey conducted by Robert Cahaly, the chief pollster for Trafalgar Group.
Mr. Cahaly has been described as one of the most accurate pollsters from the 2016 election, and he is now warning about a “hidden Trump vote” not accounted for in other polls.
“I definitely think it is going to be a surprise,” he told The Washington Times on Friday. “I think people just lie to pollsters.”
His Florida poll published Thursday shows Mr. Trump with roughly a three-point lead, 49% to 46.9%. Similarly in Michigan, Mr. Trump is leading 49% to 46.6%.
In Pennsylvania, a Trafalgar Group poll published Tuesday shows Mr. Trump with a 48.4% edge over Mr. Biden’s 47.6%. Both the candidates have been barnstorming the state in recent days, trying to shore up support ahead of Tuesday.
For North Carolina, Mr. Trump has a roughly two-point lead, 48.8% to 46%.
Wisconsin, a state Mr. Trump won by under 1% in 2016, is tight with Mr. Biden leading there with only 0.4% in Mr. Cahaly’s recent poll this week.
Those four states where the president is currently up helped deliver Mr. Trump the White House in his race against Hillary Clinton four years ago.
Mr. Cahaly said it is about the economy that appears to be clicking with voters in their backing of Mr. Trump.
“The same people who told us ‘it’s the economy, stupid’ are now saying it’s the personality,” he said. “I’m not buying it.”
The president has been trying to make a play for Minnesota, but that state hasn’t voted for a Republican president since President Nixon. Mr. Cahaly’s survey published Wednesday shows Mr. Biden with a lead over Mr. Trump there, 48% to 44.8%.
Mr. Cahaly predicts the president will win Arizona and would have a chance to win Minnesota if rapper Kanye West wasn’t running there, who has 3.5% support.
He noted without Kanye factored in, his Minnesota survey shows Mr. Trump ahead of Mr. Biden.
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