What just happened?
Perhaps the best way to recap the past four days of the NCAA Tournament is to highlight the strangest facts about the 16 teams still standing and how they got this far. They don’t call it March Madness for nothing.
The number of top-two seeds that lost by 20-plus points doubled
Before 2018, only twice in tournament history had a No. 1 or No. 2 seed lost by 20 points or more during the first weekend, according to ESPN Stats and Info. It happened twice more this week. No. 1 Virginia lost to UMBC 74-54 and Texas A&M whipped No. 2 North Carolina 86-65.
Texas A&M knocks off defending champion North Carolina 86-65, Roy Williams’ first 20-point NCAA Tournament loss in 102 games.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 18, 2018
It’s the fourth 20-point loss by a top-2 seed in the first weekend of the NCAA Tournament. Two happened in Charlotte in the last 3 days. pic.twitter.com/RgOAgO7Aks
The average seed of Sweet 16 teams is 5.3
For comparison, if all chalk had advanced to the Sweet 16 — all No. 1 through No. 4 seeds — their seeds would average out to 2.5. The mean seed of this year’s remaining teams illustrates the number of upsets that advanced: two No. 11s (Loyola-Chicago and Syracuse), two No. 9s (Kansas State and Florida State) and two No. 7s (Nevada and Texas A&M).
The last perfect bracket was ruined days ago
There were six upsets in the second round — five on Sunday alone. But out of more than 17 million submissions on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge, no “perfect” brackets remained after the historic UMBC upset of Virginia on Friday night.
ESPN Tournament Challenge Update: UMBC’s historic upset of Virginia eliminates the final perfect brackets: https://t.co/qiiVpnR9KN pic.twitter.com/pjX2xg98sx
— ESPN PR (@ESPNPR) March 17, 2018
Only 3.4 percent of Tournament Challenge entries picked the Retrievers over the Cavaliers. After two rounds of upsets, six of the 11 most popular champion picks (Virginia, Michigan State, North Carolina, Arizona, Xavier and Cincinnati) are out of the running.
Nevada and Loyola-Chicago now have double-digit percent chances to make the Final Four
FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA Tournament probabilities have undergone some changes in the past few days. With many of the heavy-hitters already packed up and going home, No. 1 Villanova and No. 2 Duke emerged as the most likely teams to win the tournament; the website gives a 40 percent chance of one of those two blue bloods claiming the title. But No. 5 Kentucky suddenly has the third-best chances at 11 percent, and No. 9 Kansas State has an outside chance at 2 percent.
Two other upset specialists, No. 7 Nevada and No. 11 Loyola-Chicago, still have very long odds of winning the whole thing, but because they are playing in a weakened South Region without any of its top four seeds remaining, each team’s probability of winning the South and making the Final Four is now 12 percent.
Four games were decided in the final 10 seconds
It’s not a tournament record, but it’s close, it’s impressive and it’s downright thrilling. Four games this week were decided on a field goal made in the final 10 seconds of the game. Two of those games were won by Loyola. Houston did it to San Diego State in the first round on a Rob Gray layup, then had it done to them in the second round when Jordan Poole’s buzzer-beater sent Michigan past the Cougars.
There have been 4 game-winning shots in the final 10 seconds of this tournament.
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 18, 2018
There have only been 3 other years since the field expanded in 1985 with more game-winning shots in the first weekend of the tournament. pic.twitter.com/e1mp3QS27O
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