OPINION:
As we head toward the bell lap of the 2026 campaign, a few of its features and likely consequences are coming into focus.
First, Abdul El-Sayed is the Democratic nominee for the U.S. Senate in Michigan. Given that Republicans have not won a Senate race in Michigan since Spencer Abraham in the wave year of 1994, it seems likely that Mr. El-Sayed will be the next senator from Michigan.
Taken with their other wins, that means the soft communism of the Democratic Socialists of America will continue to provide mood music as we glide toward the 2028 elections.
It also means that the left can’t be discounted in Senate races this cycle that should not be close but are (Iowa, Texas, Alaska, Ohio). Nor can Democratic control of the House.
The good news for President Trump is that if the election were held today, the most likely outcome would be a narrow Democratic majority. As we have seen, that sort of margin makes legislating difficult to manage, even for skilled and experienced leadership. That will be especially true given the presence of Democratic Socialists in the House, Gracie Mansion in New York and Mr. El-Sayed in the Senate.
Unfortunately, the House Democrats are in the midst of a generational shift, so skilled and experienced leadership will be in short supply. The House Democrats will very much miss the leadership of California Rep. Nancy Pelosi.
If the Democrats do control the Hous, there will likely be an orgy of oversight, most likely focused on the business dealings of the president and his family. That sounds like fun, and it may be, but it will mask the larger reality that the House majority will be essentially powerless to do much in a world where the Senate and the presidency are held by Republicans. That means answers to questions about spending, war and issues such as data centers probably will remain mostly unchanged.
The good news for the president is that the young collectivists who possess just about all of the energy on the political left in these United States are going to make it difficult for the Democrats to move toward the center, which will be essential if the Democrats want to be a meaningful alternative to the president in the twilight of his administration or if they want to be competitive in the 2028 campaign.
With respect to the Senate, there are a handful of close races — Maine, North Carolina, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska, maybe Texas. The likely outcome at the moment is that the Democrats will take away at least one seat from the Republicans (North Carolina). It is possible that Democrats will also win in Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Maine. That would give them 52 seats in the Senate, which would be enough to be an annoying (if not material) challenge to Team Trump.
Even the loss of one Senate seat, though, would give moderates in the Senate Republican caucus disproportionate influence. In other words, the preferences of Sens. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, Susan Collins of Maine and John Curtis of Utah are likely to become amplified in just about any conceivable scenario. We are already watching this dynamic in Todd Blanche’s nomination to be attorney general.
With respect to the executive branch, in the final 24 months of a two-term administration, the urgency and direction change from initiating new things to ensuring that what has been done is preserved as much as possible. Administrations do not rethink their basic premises in the twilight term. This one will not be an exception.
Because this is America and we are always more interested in the future than the past, the focus gradually shifts from the current occupant to the campaign to replace them. Consequently, much of what will happen in the Trump administration in the next 26 months will be an attempt to affect the 2028 campaigns. There is no telling what might occur under that rubric, but we can rest assured that the president will continue to prefer that the conversation remain centered on him.
The lesson of this and every election cycle is that everything has limits, and political power in the United States is no different. For that, we should all be grateful.
• Michael McKenna is a contributing editor at The Washington Times.
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