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The U.S. faces a “severe” shortage of qualified engineers and technicians needed to rebuild or replace satellites targeted by China or Russia in a theoretical 21st-century war in space, according to a major report from the Rand Corp.
The study was released last week at a crucial moment, as the U.S. seeks to bolster its space-based warfighting and defensive capabilities and as the Space Force expands rapidly and assumes an even more central role in American military strategy. At the same time, ambitious new projects such as President Trump’s proposed Golden Dome missile shield depend heavily on space-based assets, as does the modern American military’s ability to operate globally with reliable communications, GPS and other crucial tools.
America’s adversaries are keenly aware of the Pentagon’s heavy reliance on space. Critical satellites would almost certainly be targets in a future great-power war, but the Rand study says the U.S. could face serious problems quickly repairing or replacing damaged or destroyed satellites.
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One “key question is how quickly the United States can replace those capabilities during a conflict. Although much attention has focused on making these systems more resilient, far less has examined how fast they can be rebuilt after an attack, especially within 12 to 24 months,” the study says. “China and Russia have shown they can threaten or destroy U.S. space assets, potentially weakening U.S. and allied military operations across many domains. In a prolonged conflict, the ability to restore these capabilities on a short timeline could be critical.”
The U.S. has well over 10,000 satellites in orbit, the most of any nation by a wide margin. Those satellites are crucial to many military and civilian functions. A constellation of 31 satellites, for example, makes up the Global Positioning System, or GPS, that Americans rely on every day.
Modern communications and critical infrastructure systems also rely on satellites.
The number of U.S. satellites in orbit is expected to grow rapidly in the coming years. Last month, Mr. Trump issued a memo calling for a new “golden age of space transportation” in the U.S., including 1,000 annual space launches by 2030.
A looming threat
Threats to U.S. satellites are no longer theoretical.
Russia is believed to be racing ahead with a program to field nuclear-armed anti-satellite weapons, which could use a nuclear blast in space to destroy satellites.
China has invested heavily in building space weapons that can destroy or disrupt satellites, which would incapacitate U.S. communications, intelligence and missile warnings and undermine the military’s ability to conduct joint operations and project power around the world.
Getting those capabilities back up and running quickly would be essential for the U.S. military in a future war.
On Capitol Hill, lawmakers say the U.S. needs to move faster to expand the talent pool working directly with the Space Force.
“While the Space Force has already proven its value to the Joint Force, it is still building the institutions, culture, talent pipeline and operational concepts that will define the service for generations,” Sen. Roger Wicker, Mississippi Republican and chairman of the Senate Armed Services Committee, said at a July confirmation hearing for Lt. Gen. Douglas A. Schiess, who was nominated to become chief of space operations of the Space Force.
“The United States no longer has the luxury of viewing space as a permissive environment. China and Russia have made clear that they see space as a critical warfighting domain,” Mr. Wicker said. “They continue to invest in capabilities designed to challenge America’s military advantage. Beijing and Moscow are developing weapons to disrupt our satellites, degrade our communications, interfere with navigation and threaten the systems that enable every joint military operation.”
Mr. Wicker cited the 2023 Personnel Management Act, which paved the way for a single military personnel management system inside the Space Force, as one way Congress is addressing the issue.
The Rand study says the biggest hurdles stem from workforce shortages. Although about 3% of all American engineers already work in the space industry, the study says it takes too long to onboard new qualified workers.
Significant delays in obtaining all necessary security clearances for technicians working on critical satellites, along with a high number of foreign nationals holding the required advanced degrees, make it hard to ramp up the workforce, the report said.
The Rand study also points to gaps in the “continuous production” of workers with the necessary math, science and engineering skills required to work on modern satellites, some of the most complex and technologically advanced pieces of equipment on the planet.
The study urged the Space Force to invest in new avenues to train more qualified workers. Specifically, the report said the Space Force must take the lead to ensure “coordination to align, expand and sustain efforts across the space industrial base.”
The Space Force is in the midst of a major hiring blitz and aims to bring on board thousands of new civilian employees, including engineers, over the next year.
“We are hiring engineers, we’re hiring program managers,” Natalie Riedel, executive director of U.S. Space Systems Command, said in a Guardian Spotlight interview published in July. The Spotlight is a profile series featuring key Defense Department officials published by the military.
“Cyber is at the top of the list. We need those cyber experts in order to get after the mission. We are hiring in all different fields and looking for talent at all levels. We need recent college graduates, and we need mid-career professionals. We’re hiring at all levels,” Ms. Riedel said.
The military also will rely heavily on private defense companies, with their own pools of qualified workers, to keep the rapidly expanding array of U.S. satellites operating.
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