Republicans are leaning hard into a simple idea this fall: The best defense is a political takedown.
Democrat James Talarico’s campaign got an early warning when a Texas Southern University poll released Sept. 18 showed his unfavorable rating climbing to 50% in his Senate race against Republican Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. The shift aligns with the Republicans’ broader strategy of addition by erosion, the belief that tearing down Democrats will lift up Republicans in a tough political climate.
In Maine, Republican Sen. Susan M. Collins is viewed more favorably in her bid for a sixth term in the Senate against Democrat Troy Jackson, according to a recent New York Times survey.
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The same poll found that Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed is leading the Senate race in Michigan, but also is facing more voters who view him “very unfavorable” than former Rep. Mike Rogers. In Ohio, Republican insiders say internal polling shows former Sen. Sherrod Brown’s favorability rating is underwater — and dropping — as he attempts to unseat Sen. Jon Husted.
Chris LaCivita, a senior strategist for President Trump’s 2024 campaign and former media adviser to the 2004 “Swift Boat” campaign, said Tuesday he is watching those figures closely. He told Breitbart News that favorable-unfavorable ratings are a clear sign of where a race is headed and that campaigns “spend so much time beating the hell out of their opponent because the higher the negative, the higher the anti-vote becomes.”
Whether that is wishful thinking is an open question for Republicans, who are fighting midterm history, Mr. Trump’s low approval ratings and voter frustration over the economy, the cost of living and the Iran war.
If Mr. LaCivita is right, it is bad news for Democrats, including Mr. Talarico.
Mark Jones, a political science professor at Rice University, said Republicans have built their strategy around driving up Mr. Talarico’s unfavorable numbers because “it’s going to be a lot easier to raise Talarico’s unfavorables than to raise Paxton’s favorables.”
The idea is to give Republican voters who are undecided or leaning toward Mr. Talarico “a reason to reconsider” when they go to the polls in November, especially if both candidates start to look flawed. Rising negatives also could draw out voters who might otherwise stay home.
“They’re not turning out to vote for Ken Paxton; they’re turning out to vote against James Talarico,” Mr. Jones said.
MAGA Inc. started running an ad Sept. 7 that opens with a narrator saying, “James Talarico is weird — very weird.” The spot highlights past remarks by Mr. Talarico, including that there are six biological sexes, that “Jesus Christ himself was a radical feminist” and that “God is nonbinary.” The narrator closes with: “Liberal weirdo James Talarico. Too loco for Texas.”
The Senate Leadership Fund, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, South Dakota Republican, is also on the air. In Alaska, it is attacking former Rep. Mary Peltola, who is running against Sen. Dan Sullivan, for voting with President Biden “95% of the time,” calling her “a complete sellout” and “just a liberal in Alaska clothes.”
In Ohio, the group is airing a spot warning that Mr. Brown backed “sex changes for minors.” In Maine, they are warning that Mr. Jackson has a track record of raising taxes and enriching his family as a state lawmaker, and in Michigan, they are targeting Mr. El-Sayed, saying he wants to “defund the police,” release criminals onto the streets and pal around with people who hate the U.S.
The SLF website is packed with more than two dozen attack ads — a sign of how central negative advertising has become to the Republicans’ strategy this cycle.
Some Republicans worry that their party’s barrage is too late. Robert Cahaly, chief pollster at the Atlanta-based Trafalgar Group, said Republicans are playing catch-up after letting Democratic candidates define themselves over the summer.
“You can’t go back in time and match what they did in August because a lot of the Democratic candidates have been unanswered on TV for months,” he said. “It would have been a lot cheaper to do it before people knew who they were.”
He said early impressions get baked in, making them harder — and more expensive — to shake. Early voting has already begun in some states.
Mr. Cahaly blamed campaigns that struggled to raise money and leaned too heavily on the Trump fundraising operation. He is particularly concerned about South Carolina, where a late, contested special election has left Sen. Darline Graham, sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, short on cash. Democratic nominee Annie Andrews, a pediatrician, is challenging her in a race that has flown under the radar.
The Cook Political Report rates the race likely Republican, but Mr. Cahaly considers it a toss-up.
A Republican operative working on the midterm effort said Republicans hope the negative momentum against Democrats will be clear by mid-October. The operative said the strategy is data-driven: “In general, everything we are spending money on, our data shows, will hurt the Democrats’ favorables. We are not shooting in the dark when we decide where and how much money to spend on these ads.”
Democrats argue the ad barrage will be drowned out by voter anger over the Iran war, persistent inflation and high gas prices — issues that have prompted an increasing number of Republicans to call for an end to the conflict.
Democrats are throwing their own punches. The New York Times reported Tuesday that Senate Majority PAC, aligned with Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer, New York Democrat, has begun airing ads in Texas on Mr. Talarico’s behalf, signaling that Democrats expect a long, expensive fight. Their first ad accuses Mr. Paxton of giving a convicted sex offender a sweetheart deal, noting the criminal’s attorney represented one of Mr. Paxton’s biggest donors.
The cycle historically tilts against the sitting president’s party, and Mr. Trump’s approval rating has dropped to 37% in a Wall Street Journal poll released Sept. 24 — the lowest of any president heading into midterms in Journal polling dating to 1990.
Still, Republicans are positioned to flood the airwaves. AdImpact’s latest breakdown shows Republicans dominating both spending and future reservations across the Senate map, including in Texas, Ohio, Michigan and Maine. North Carolina stands out as the only race where Democrats have more ad time banked.
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