Climate-disaster satire ‘Digger’ faces a chilly box office opening as Tom Cruise gambles on WB

Tom Cruise plays an oil baron at the center of an ecological catastrophe in “Digger,” a satire that some have billed as a climate disaster comedy. The bigger crisis may be at the box office, where the film opens Friday tracking for just $12 million to $15 million in North America, according to Variety.

Projections were $18 million to $20 million before being revised down in recent days. Variety reported that the R-rated original comedy from director Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu was greenlit at $125 million, but four knowledgeable sources said the budget climbed to between $160 million and $180 million after production ran over schedule. A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes those figures.

In the film, Mr. Cruise plays Digger Rockwell, an eccentric tycoon whose Arctic oil operation sits at the center of a natural catastrophe, Esquire reported after the trailer’s release. The magazine described the film as a modern “Dr. Strangelove” set against the climate crisis and Big Oil. John Goodman plays a U.S. president who tasks Digger with saving the world. The trailer also shows a melting iceberg and the threat of nuclear war, both of which the trailer suggests may have been caused by Digger’s own company.

The financial math is steep. Rival executives told Variety a movie of this size would need a debut near $40 million. With about $100 million spent on marketing and exhibitors keeping roughly half of ticket sales, executives with knowledge of similar films put the theatrical break-even point near $350 million worldwide. Warner Bros. says it is $300 million. Profitability could take longer because Mr. Cruise receives first-dollar gross, meaning he earns a percentage of revenue before the studio recoups its costs.

Analyst Jeff Bock of Exhibitor Relations said Mr. Cruise has earned the right to take a chance but noted that “His name alone isn’t going to sell it.” “Digger” is Mr. Cruise’s first original film since 2017’s “American Made,” and his last two “Mission: Impossible” films saw diminishing returns.

The stakes extend beyond one movie. Warner Bros. had seven films gross $100 million domestically in 2025 and held 21% of the North American box office. This year it has yet to release one and holds about 6% of the domestic market year to date, even as overall ticket sales are at their strongest since the onset of COVID. “The Bride!” has grossed $24 million worldwide against a $90 million budget, and “Supergirl” grossed $126 million globally against a $170 million budget. Variety projects those results will translate into theatrical losses of about $100 million and $80 million, respectively. Paramount Skydance hopes to close its acquisition of Warner Bros. Discovery soon. The studio is counting on December’s “Dune: Part III” to rebound.