President Trump’s tariffs on Canada are creating clear winners and uneasy allies, with steel and lumber producers embracing the protection while alcohol and dairy groups see the levies as a bargaining chip to push Ottawa to the negotiating table.
Steel producers are the most vocal, saying Trump tariffs from his first and second terms leveled the playing field. They point to a sharp decline in foreign competition since Mr. Trump cracked down with 50% tariffs on imported steel.
Through July, U.S. steel imports dropped 19.6% compared with the same period in 2025, according to data from the American Iron and Steel Institute.
Imports from Canada fell even more sharply, with steel shipments down 42% in July versus a year earlier.
At the same time, American mills are shipping more steel. Domestic producers shipped nearly 55.75 million tons during the first seven months of 2026, with mills operating at 79% of their production capacity, up from 77% in July 2025.
Steel industry advocates say none of that would have happened without Mr. Trump’s 50% tariffs, which made imported steel more expensive and gave domestic mills more room to compete for U.S. customers.
“We’ve seen imports decline substantially and, more importantly, the share of the U.S. market taken by imports has declined,” said Kevin Dempsey, CEO of the American Iron and Steel Institute. “That’s allowed U.S. steelmakers to increase production, increase sales and invest upwards of $40 billion in upgraded plants and equipment. So it’s been very positive.”
Their view offers a counter to the naysayers who believe Mr. Trump’s tariff program is too costly and a losing strategy for Americans.
“The mainstream has refused to cover the countless American workers, farmers, and businesses who have been undermined for decades by Canada and other countries’ unfair trading practices,” White House spokesman Kush Desai said. “President Trump’s trade actions have always been guided by putting these Americans first at home and abroad, and the administration remains committed to leveling the playing field.”
Beyond steel, the U.S. lumber industry says Mr. Trump’s tariffs on wood from up north have given it a boost.
Domestic lumber producers are projected to add 2.5 billion board feet of capacity the next two years. That translates to 1,667 new workers at the mills, 4,150 jobs in the supplier industries and 3,100 jobs in the surrounding communities, according to the U.S. Lumber Coalition.
The coalition said Canada’s market share in the U.S. dropped from around 35% to roughly 19% after Mr. Trump imposed tariffs during his first term.
At the same time, domestic lumber companies’ share of the market increased from around 60% to roughly 80%.
Zoltan van Heyningen, executive director of the U.S. Lumber Coalition, said because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, the domestic market share for U.S. lumber suppliers increased “quite dramatically.”
“It’s been a huge shift, and that means thousands of jobs were created here in the United States that otherwise wouldn’t have been created but for the trade law enforcement and Section 232 tariffs,” he said.
Still, those benefits won’t come for free.
Builders and manufacturers are paying more for steel and lumber, and simmering tension between the Trump administration and Ottawa broke into an all-out trade war this summer, raising tariff levels further on a smorgasbord of goods from both countries.
Mr. Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Canadian alcohol, dairy and furniture in August, citing unfair treatment of American producers.
Canada recently slapped retaliatory tariffs on over $20 billion in U.S. goods, including dairy. Several provinces have restricted U.S. alcohol since last year, causing a drop in their overall sales.
The trade war underscores how the same tariffs that are protecting some domestic producers can squeeze other industries caught in the crossfire. The result is a schism, with some industries cheering on Mr. Trump’s tariffs and others hoping they disappear fast.
“There are trade-offs. While the steel industry might benefit from tariffs, steel-using industries get hurt. These include autos, construction, appliances and more. They have to pay more for their steel, and they have to charge consumers higher prices,” said Ryan Young, a senior economist at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, who noted jobs in steel-using industries outnumber jobs in the steel industry by 80-to-one.
The stakes sharpened in recent days.
Hours after Canada imposed retaliatory tariffs on Tuesday, the Trump administration moved to ban imports of most Canadian alcohol, dairy products and motorcycles.
Both sides accused the other of tanking negotiations, leaving them locked in a standoff with no clear end.
Some industries, such as dairy, hope the tariffs bring Ottawa back to the bargaining table to negotiate a better deal under the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, the trade pact signed in 2018 but undergoing formal review.
However, they’re skeptical that permanent tariffs would solve the trade fight.
“The end goal isn’t to be having these bans or very high tariffs on Canadian imports in place long term,” said Shawna Morris, executive vice president of trade policy and global affairs for the National Milk Producers Association.
“They are an important leverage tool, and we had Canadians game-playing on their USMCA dairy market commitments for years and just a refusal to address the issue. I think that left the administration with no choice but to try to look for other tools to shake things up and drive negotiations forward in a more productive way,” she said.
Ms. Morris said tariffs haven’t been in place long enough to measure their impact on dairy producers.
Tariffs are duties imposed on foreign goods brought into U.S. markets.
They’ve been used for centuries to protect domestic industries. Mr. Trump supercharged their importance by making them the central plank of his trade agenda.
Critics say the tariffs raise prices, as importers pass along the cost of duties, and should not be used as a form of blanket punishment on foreign sectors.
That makes tariffs, for some, a sensitive topic.
“It’s a bad look to cheerlead for the tariffs. When [industries] do, it’s usually couched in some sort of fairness argument. Sometimes, the steel industry will make this argument, but that’s usually against countries like China, not Canada,” said Wayne Winegarden, a senior fellow in economics at the Pacific Research Institute.
A major lobby for U.S. distillers said it hopes Mr. Trump’s ban on Canadian alcohol imports leads to a positive resolution for both nations, rather than a bitter cycle of revenge.
Chris Swonger, CEO of the Distilled Spirits Council of the United States, said U.S. spirits exports to Canada fell by more than 70% when Canadian provinces pulled American liquor from their shelves.
“We know firsthand the damage these measures can cause, and we do not wish to see Canadian distillers face similar hardship,” Mr. Swonger said. “We are hopeful that this action will bring both governments back to the negotiating table before the ban on Canadian spirits imports takes effect.
“We urge leaders on both sides of the border to reach a resolution that restores U.S. spirits to retail shelves throughout Canada and returns the spirits sector to a permanent zero-for-zero tariff framework.”
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