Russian satellites are failing to reach the required altitudes to create its own version of SpaceX’s Starlink system, the Institute for the Study of War said this week.
The Kremlin is struggling in the satellite project, which it accelerated after losing illicit access to Starlink terminals early this year.
None of the 16 Rassvet satellites from a batch launched on July 19 reached their anticipated altitude of about 340 miles as of Monday, the think tank said.
Many ended up at altitudes between 180 and 240 miles — well short of the intended operational altitude for the Rassvet satellites. At least two are reportedly heading for reentry into Earth’s atmosphere, the ISW said in its latest analysis of the conflict in Ukraine.
“Satellites orbiting at lower altitudes have shorter operational lifespans due to increased atmospheric drag from upper layers of Earth’s atmosphere and greater fuel expenditure than satellites operating at higher altitudes,” the ISW said.
Satellite systems such as Starlink allow operators to control long-range drones and watch live video feeds of a mission. Satellite internet also bypasses phone towers and vulnerable ground wires.
Analysts say the Feb. 1 shutdown of Russia’s access to Starlink communications likely accelerated Moscow’s timeline to create a fully operational alternative to Starlink.
“The apparent failure of all 16 satellites from the second launch to reach their intended operational altitudes suggests Russia may have been unprepared to accelerate constellation deployment at this pace and will likely face additional delays,” the ISW said.
However, the existing Rassvet satellite constellation still threatens Ukraine.
“Even partially successful Rassvet launches could allow Russian forces to increasingly use satellite communications on the battlefield and in their strikes against Ukraine,” the ISW said.
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