The NFL filed a brief to the Supreme Court on Thursday arguing that sports contracts offered on prediction markets constitute gambling and should be regulated as such.
The league’s amicus curiae brief was filed in support of a petition from New Jersey Attorney General Jennifer Davenport and Division of Gaming Enforcement Interim Director Mary Jo Flaherty calling for the Supreme Court to review whether the contracts — yes or no prediction market questions that pay off for those who predict the answers correctly — fall under the purview of states or whether they should continue to be regulated by the federal Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The NFL’s brief followed one filed Wednesday by the attorneys general of 39 states and the District of Columbia that also supported New Jersey’s petition, which was prompted by two conflicting rulings in federal courts.
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The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit, which covers New Jersey, ruled 2-1 in favor of the prediction market Kalshi in April and found that the 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act preempted state gambling laws, the New Jersey Office of the Attorney General said in a release last month.
Conversely, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit ruled on Aug. 28 and ruled in favor of the states, finding that the 2010 law did not create a loophole and that sports event contracts offered on prediction markets are not swaps subject solely to the jurisdiction of the CFTC.
In addition, the New Jersey attorney general’s office expressed concern that if a ruling is laid down in favor of Kalshi’s argument that such wagers are swaps, then sports betting outside of CFTC-registered markets such as at Las Vegas and Atlantic City sportsbooks would become illegal under federal law.
Jurisdiction over sports event contracts also have an impact in terms of revenue. The American Gaming Association, a gambling industry trade group which opposes offering sports wagers on prediction markets, says on its website that states have lost out on over $1.5 billion in revenue since prediction markets started allowing sports event contracts.
Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour contends that state authorities and gaming operators classify sports event contracts as bets rather than trades out of their own vested interests. Kalshi is the respondent to Ms. Davenport and Ms. Flaherty’s petition to the Supreme Court, and the company has until Nov. 9 to file a response.
In its brief, the NFL pointed to its history of working with state regulators to create protection around sports betting, including “bans on manipulable or objectionable bets, information-sharing agreements regarding official league data for accurate bet settlement, and bet monitoring to ensure that league insiders do not trade on material nonpublic information.”
Prediction markets, the league said, claim that wagers on whether the Washington Commanders or another team will make the playoffs are swaps that fall under the aegis of the CFTC as opposed to sports bets governed by state regulators.
Mr. Mansour told RotoWire last month that “Have you asked the winners on Kalshi, the people that are doing all the research? There are people that do research on the weather, or on politics, or on baseball. It’s PhD mathematics and statistics level work. … Those people are trading in an open market. … And if you ask those people, is it different? Are you trading? Are you betting? Well, they’ll give you a very clear answer: ’I’m trading, and I made millions of dollars.’”
The NFL said the CFTC and prediction markets have not implemented the proper safeguards to keep the integrity of sports events safe. The football league stressed that current and proposed rules don’t offer ways to ask for emergency reviews or suspension of contracts if integrity has been compromised.
In its brief, the league said that “unless operators like Kalshi coordinate with sports leagues to obtain and maintain current, league-specific prohibited bettor lists, their nominal insider-trading policies or prohibitions are paper tigers — they have no practical way to prevent trading by individuals with material non-public information if they do not know who they are (e.g., league employees or medical personnel treating player injuries).”
The NFL also said the CFTC doesn’t have enough resources to monitor increasing volumes of sports event contracts on prediction markets. Around $1.8 billion of the $3.3 billion traded on prediction markets on the first Sunday of this season was spent on predictions relating to the NFL, the league said.
Kalshi drew 95% of its revenue in 2025 from sports-related contracts, Ms. Davenport’s office said.
Around 70% of Kalshi’s sports-related trades occur in the 11 states that do not have legalized sports betting or in states that have a limited number of operators facilitating sports bets, according to RotoWire.
The CFTC said in a statement that “it’s unfortunate the NFL declined to sign an MOU [memorandum of understanding] with the CFTC which would’ve provided the league the ability to better discuss, cooperate, and exchange information with us to promote the integrity and resilience of prediction markets,” according to ESPN.
Elisabeth Diana, a spokesperson for Kalshi, said in a statement to CNBC, which has its own partnership with the prediction market, that “we have consistently tried to engage proactively and constructively with the NFL to collaborate on market integrity with no response. We hope they change their position and start engaging to help ensure the integrity of sports.”
The NFL does not necessarily oppose prediction markets being regulated by the federal government. A league source told ESPN that the league would accept a federally administered framework if it matched the existing regulations upheld by state gambling authorities.
The NFL’s support of the brief filed by Ms. Davenport and Ms. Flaherty contrasts with the approaches taken by the MLB, which is partnered officially with Kalshi competitor Polymarket, and the NHL which is partnered with both Kalshi and Polymarket. Both the NHL and MLB also have memorandums of understanding with the CFTC.
The NBA, which does not currently have an official prediction market partner, is in talks to strike a deal with one, according to reports.
Sources told Front Office Sports last month that “deal terms on the table” and that they expect the NBA to announce a prediction market partnership by the team the 2026-2027 season kicks off on Oct. 20.
Without specifically naming either the NFL or the NBA, Mr. Mansour also told RotoWire last month that “you should expect announcements very soon, at least from one of the two remaining major leagues” regarding a prediction market partnership.
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