The Cook Political Report has moved a dozen House races in favor of the Democrats just days before Election Day.
The nonpartisan election handicapper released a report Friday that upgraded Democrats’ chances in 12 House contests, including several GOP strongholds previously considered safe for Republicans.
The changes add to a growing list of races that have shifted toward Democrats in recent weeks, suggesting that Republicans face an increasingly difficult path to retaining their narrow House majority.
People were interested in these podcasts
Cook now projects Democrats will win between 227 and 240 seats, comfortably exceeding the 218 needed for control of the House. More than 218 seats are leaning Democratic or better, according to Cook.
“While Democrats won’t reach the 257 seats they had following President Barack Obama’s election – a high water mark for them this century – they could surpass the majorities they had following the 2006 and 2018 blue wave cycles,” wrote Erin Covey, House editor for Cook.
The prediction is particularly dire for Republicans because several of the races involve districts that President Trump carried in 2024, raising questions about whether his political coalition will turn out for GOP congressional candidates.
Among the most surprising races that moved is Colorado’s 5th Congressional District, held by Rep. Jeff Crank, a Republican, which moved from “lean Republican” to a toss-up.
Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional District, represented by Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick, and South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District, represented by Nancy Mace, both Republicans, were also moved from “lean Republican” to a toss-up.
In addition, Cook moved Pennsylvania’s 8th Congressional District, represented by Republican Rep. Rob Bresnahan, from toss-up to “lean Democrat.” Mr. Trump won the district by nine percentage points in 2024.
Among the 12 races moved by Cook, only Mr. Fitzpatrick represents a district won by Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The other districts were won by Mr. Trump handily in 2024, including some where he won by double digits.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.