VICTORIA, Texas — Just days into early voting, Texans are turning out at higher rates than in the 2022 midterms. Who shows up to vote might determine who controls the U.S. Senate.
Texas is so critical for Republicans that President Trump is returning Tuesday to campaign for Attorney General Ken Paxton, who trails Democratic state Rep. James Talarico by roughly 2 points in recent polls.
As the Senate hopefuls race around the state that Democrats have not won statewide since 1994, differing strategies are on display.
People were interested in these podcasts
Mr. Paxton’s “Come and take it” bus tour is focusing on rural areas and solid Trump country. Events open with the Pledge of Allegiance, the Texas Pledge and a prayer.
Mr. Talarico is on a “Clear Eyes Full Hearts” bus tour, hitting the state’s biggest cities and suburbs with large rallies that his fans say reminded them of Barack Obama’s early days as a candidate.
At a Paxton rally Wednesday in Victoria, Texas, state Rep. A.J. Louderback explained the job at hand to a crowd of roughly 75 people at a family-friendly bar and grill called The Barn.
“Rural Texas has pulled through a lot of election cycles for Republicans,” Mr. Louderback said as a rodeo played on the bar’s televisions. “They’re going to be needed this time.”
Mr. Paxton described the election this way: “It’s the America our founders gave us, versus something they would never recognize. While you might think you have just one vote, the consequences of that vote will determine what the future of Texas and America look like.”
Later that night, at a rally in Fort Bend County, Mr. Talarico described the race as a “David versus Goliath” battle in which he played the role of David on the cusp of victory.
“They are scared. They are terrified. They see what we see — that we’re about to win this election,” he said. “We are running against the embodiment of this corrupt system.”
Voters across South Texas have told reporters they, too, view the Senate race as something larger, a battle for the soul of the state. Some want to turn the page from full Republican control or say Mr. Paxton is corrupt. Others said the Democratic Party is dangerous, wanting to open the borders and spend on liberal causes.
Pedro Gonzalez, 65, was one of the first people to show up in rural Cuero on Monday when early voting began to cast a ballot for Mr. Paxton.
He said Mr. Paxton’s “heart is in the right place” and that as senator, “he’ll do great for this country.”
Mr. Gonzalez also said he was concerned about illegal immigration. His parents came from Mexico “the legal way,” he said.
In Richmond, Texas, Mental health counselor Tammie Betts, 44, voted early for Mr. Talarico. She said she believes the state could finally back a Democrat.
“I’m seeing people come across the aisle. I’m seeing people from both sides decide that they’re ready for a change,” she said.
David Winkelmen, a 72-year-old retired machinist from Houston, said he had been a lifelong Republican until Mr. Trump came into office but now is “going to try something else.”
This election, Mr. Winkelmen is knocking door-to-door in hopes of getting voters to back the Democrat. “I would do anything to keep [Mr. Paxton] out of office,” he said.
Mr. Paxton was impeached in the Republican-held Texas House in 2023 related to alleged abuse of his office to benefit a campaign donor. He was acquitted by the state Senate.
In Texas, a state where more than 56% of voters voted for Mr. Trump in 2024, Mr. Paxton says he is in a tough race, which is “shocking.”
“We can win this because we have more Republicans. We just have to vote,” he said in Victoria.
Underneath neon beer signs in Victoria, some rural Texans voiced their support for Paxton — “the pitbull” who they say they trust to preserve their values.
The attorney general outlined his agenda, which he said would help Texans curb high costs and lead healthy lives, then portrayed Talarico as the most “radical” Democrat to ever run statewide.
Kevin Gibson, 48, who works on oil rigs, was concerned about being able to support his family if Democrats win the senatorial race. “If it does go blue, I don’t know what is going to happen to the oil and gas industry,” he said.
For Katherine Moore, 46, a lifelong San Antonio resident and environmental consultant, border security is top of mind this election. She said she cast her early vote for Mr. Paxton in San Antonio.
“I’d pay $25 a gallon of gas as long as our borders are secure,” Ms. Moore said. “I really don’t like the Iran war, but we have enough oil here. We can drill it.”
Underscoring Mr. Paxton’s troubles, Cheryl Clark said she is still on the fence after hearing his speech in Victoria. The 64-year-old retired teacher and Republican said her friends are “just going to opt out” rather than vote, and she is still deciding what to do.
“He didn’t do anything for me,” she said Friday, adding that his speech was “lackluster” and “he has so much baggage.”
The Paxton crowd delighted in mocking Mr. Talarico as someone who wears “skinny jeans” and doesn’t eat meat, at one point chanting the nickname “Talafreako.” Some in the raucous crowd gathered at the waitlist-only rally in Richmond, a suburb outside of Houston, proudly wore “Talafreako” shirts.
Meanwhile, at a Talarico event at the Safari Texas Ranch, a large, well-lit hall filled with ornate crystal chandeliers, the Democrat exuded confidence.
“We are going to shock the nation, shock the world when we beat the billionaires and take back Texas,” Mr. Talarico said.
Luke Orlando, who served on a local city council, introduced himself as a Republican backing Mr. Talarico.
Despite flipping burgers at 14 to send himself to the Republican National Convention and naming his dog “Mitt” after the one-time GOP presidential nominee, Mitt Romney, Mr. Orlando said he is frustrated by how the party changed.
“I still believe what you believe, in family values, in the rule of law, that character counts, that America is supposed to be a ‘shining city on a hill,’” Mr. Orlando said he tells fellow Republicans. “Ken Paxton does not share a single one of those values, and you do not owe him your vote.”
At Mr. Paxton’s rally in Victoria, Branded Cowboy Church pastor Mike Whitfield prayed for the candidate, and also for voters who say they won’t cast their ballots.
“I just pray that you get in the minds and the hearts of those who are saying, ‘Nah, not going to vote.’ I pray, Father, that that gets turned around,” Whitfield said.
• This report was by Katherine Contreras Hernandez, Nicholas Corral, Jules Cox, Olivia Hau, Aden Max Juarez, Caitlin Roehmholdt, Loralei Rohrbach, Jose Trejo and Gian Marco Velasquez, and was provided courtesy of the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism at the University of Southern California.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.