OPINION:
Pay attention to the polls and President Trump’s ratings have fallen to record lows, all the states that were either leaning Republican or likely Republican for the midterm elections have moved into the more-than-likely-not-quite-definitely Democrat category, and the American people are not only the unhappiest they’ve been in [insert random time span] but also quite ready to toss their freedoms in the trash heap and declare America a socialist nation.
Welcome to the world of political polling — where anybody with a pen and phone can become the prophet du jour.
Say the right stuff and an MSNOW or CNN star is born!
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The Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll finds “Trump approval hits record low.” The Politico Poll, conducted by Politico and PF Global — a polling firm in London — finds the “tech industry has officially become Republican-coded” and that “could complicate not only the prospects of Republicans trying to break from Donald Trump but also spell trouble for the companies themselves.” Another Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll finds “7 in 10 Americans doubt” that Trump would “accept GOP midterm losses” — a sort of sly way of suggesting voters should expect violence and mayhem and Jan. 6 redux if they dare vote for the Republican candidates this November.
The Cook Political Report — a self-described “independent, nonpartisan newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns” — lists and links to 15 different polling outlets on its home page, from CNN/ORC to Gallup to Marist to Pew. All the numbers you need to create the preferred headlines and design the favored social media posts to influence the undecided voters in one easy-peasy click.
The problem with polling isn’t simply that there are no guardrails on the industry — that is, anybody can become a pollster. The bigger problem is that too many believe in the polls.
In an August post titled, “Anyone Can Publish a Poll. Here Is How to Tell If You Should Believe It,” the survey research firm Magellan Strategies wrote: “Last week, a firm nobody had ever heard of published election polls for races in Los Angeles, Wisconsin and Nevada. The numbers looked legitimate, the formatting was spot-on, and social media picked them up almost immediately. Even a campaign shared the results before anyone stopped to ask a simple question: Who exactly are these people? As it turns out, they were nobody.”
As it turned out, the organization, called Median Strategies, put up a website, threw out some numbers and then, when some questioning people started looking at the findings, the site went dark.
“The firm admitted the polls were complete fabrications — part of a ‘social experiment’ to see how easily unverified data could slip into our political conversations,” Magellan Strategies wrote.
In critical elections — and aren’t they all — and in a time when news travels at the speed of a social media share, this unverified data can sway entire blocs of voters.
“Democrats are hungry for a blue wave in the November election, and a series of recent polls has them thinking they could pull off victories in some deeply red territory that would have seemed unthinkable a few months ago,” CNN wrote.
Indeed.
And it’s not just the polls. It’s not just the polling numbers and the question of their accuracy. It’s also the takeaways from the polls and polling numbers that are reported in the media, on social media, by Democrat-leaning and, to be honest, too, conservative-leaning pundits and talking heads.
Every day, a new poll shows a new GOP stronghold falling to a Democrat upstart. In Texas, according to polling, Attorney General Ken Paxton hasn’t had a chance against relative newcomer James Talarico for months — even after Talarico disappeared from the campaign trail for more than a week. In Florida, in red of red-state Florida, Democrat Socialists of America-backed Angie Nixon is said to be “gaining traction,” “gaining momentum,” gaining, gaining, gaining on Republican Ashley Moody — and that’s even as poll numbers show otherwise.
Wait a minute, wait a minute.
Like clockwork, as voting day draws nearer and accountability for the nonstop polling and skewed polling and unprofessionally conducted polling draws near, as well, here come the stories showing Republicans may, maybe, just might have a chance; here come the stories suggesting Democrats may not be running away with the races as previous polls suggested. Call it a course correction. Call it a Cover Your You-Know-What moment.
“Polls are tightening in three Senate races in which Democrats have enjoyed narrow but consistent polling leads: Texas, Ohio and Michigan,” The New York Times just wrote.
The thing with polls is they only capture a blink in time. The earlier the poll is conducted for a political race, the higher the chance for its stated results to be wrong. After all, voters headed to the beach in July aren’t exactly paying attention to the pros and cons of Candidate A versus Candidate B for November’s election.
Methodology matters. Reputation matters. Sampling matters. Margin of error matters. Transparency matters. Sponsorship matters — that is, who’s paying for the survey. Think Steele Dossier situation. Even the order of questions, wording of questions, date of questioning matter.
“Be cautious of results when the margin of error exceeds 5 or 6 points,” the Bloustein Center for Survey Research wrote.
And here’s something that matters tremendously in this day and age of “fake news” — this, from Bloustein: “Twenty Questions A Journalist Should Ask About Poll Results,” a “pamphlet available from the National Council on Public Polls.”
The media should serve as guardians of truth on polls — though practically speaking, there are too many polls conducted by too many agencies to properly vet each and every number and finding and conclusion. This means the American people must approach each and every election this way: Vote your conscience. Do your own candidate research. And take what the polls say with a grain of salt.
Remember, according to most polls, Trump never should have been president.
• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at cchumley@washingtontimes.com or on Twitter, @ckchumley. Listen to her podcast “Bold and Blunt” by clicking HERE. And never miss her column; subscribe to her newsletter and podcast by clicking HERE. Her latest book, “God-Given Or Bust: Defeating Marxism and Saving America With Biblical Truths,” is available by clicking HERE.
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