Partisan gerrymandering, once a dominant tool for Democrats, has shifted in favor of Republicans as redistricting battles ahead of the midterm elections reach a fever pitch.
The Virginia Supreme Court’s bombshell decision Friday that nullified the state’s redistricting referendum struck a blow to the Democratic Party’s hopes of picking up an additional four seats in the U.S. House.
The Virginia court handed down its 4-3 ruling as Republicans made gains in nine other states as part of a nationwide partisan redistricting brawl that has given Republicans the advantage.
The latest red-state pickups are in Alabama, South Carolina and Tennessee, where Republican-led legislatures are pushing through last-minute changes to congressional districts that are likely to create additional Republican-leaning districts.
The Florida Legislature last month approved a congressional map that created four additional Republican-leaning districts, adding to five new Republican-carved districts in Texas and one new Republican-leaning seat each in Ohio, Missouri and North Carolina.
In total, Republicans are poised to add up to 17 additional districts likely to elect Republican candidates to the U.S. House.
Democratic-led redistricting has added only six congressional districts, five in California and one in Utah, that favor their party’s candidates.
“Republicans appear to have emerged from the smoke and smolder of the redistricting fight as the clear winners,” said analysts at the election forecasting firm Quantus Insights.
After the Virginia Supreme Court decision and other redistricting in red states, the race-ratings firm Inside Elections shifted 12 House races, 11 of them in favor of Republicans.
Republicans are not guaranteed to keep control of the House next year.
The current congressional district map leaves up to 16 toss-up seats across the nation, in addition to other less-competitive districts, that could swing the majority to either party in the midterm elections.
Republicans now control the House by a razor-thin margin and are battling growing public disapproval of their control of Congress and the White House.
Despite daunting poll numbers, some analysts say the redistricting fight has secured a defensive perimeter for Republicans. Quantus Insights noted that, at minimum, the party remains in a “statistical toss-up” to retain control of the House.
Republicans were energized by the Virginia ruling.
“This win is yet another sign Republicans have the momentum heading into November. We’re on offense, and we’re going to win,” said Rep. Richard Hudson of North Carolina, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
Democrats are not giving up the redistricting fight. Virginia Democrats filed a motion Friday asking the U.S. Supreme Court to delay implementation of the Virginia Supreme Court ruling. The two-page motion, filed by Virginia House of Delegates Speaker Don Scott, misspelled “Virginia” and “Senator.”
House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, New York Democrat, said national Democrats are examining ways to block the ruling.
“We are exploring all options to overturn this shocking decision,” Mr. Jeffries said. “No matter what it takes, House Democrats will win in November. … Our fight is not over. We are just getting started.”
Mr. Jeffries, who would likely become speaker if Democrats win control of the U.S. House, steered the bulk of the funding behind the massively expensive campaign for the redistricting referendum in Virginia. House Majority Forward, a nonprofit tied to House Democratic leadership, poured nearly $40 million into the race, which helped the proposed map narrowly pass in an April 21 referendum.
The Virginia Supreme Court rejected the map after hearing from opponents who said the Democratic-led Virginia General Assembly violated the state’s constitution when it convened a special session to redraw the map without an intervening election as required.
Skipping the required process, the court’s majority ruled, “irreparably undermines the integrity of the resulting referendum vote and renders it null and void.”
Republicans launched redistricting battles after decades of Democratic redistricting in California, New York and states across New England, as well as other states.
The aggressive remapping for their party’s advantage has left Democrats with little room for new gerrymandered gains. New England, for example, lacks a single Republican-leaning congressional district.
Still, Democrats complained that the Republicans’ redistricting push was unfair because voters did not directly approve it.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who spearheaded the 2025 special election campaign that carved out five new Democratic-leaning congressional seats in his state, posted bitterly on social media that the Virginia court ruling tossed out a map approved by voters, while none of the new Republican-favored maps was decided by a similar referendum.
“MAGA has rigged the system,” said Mr. Newsom, who is widely considered a likely Democratic presidential candidate in 2028.
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