OPINION:
After spending this week reviewing the Iran war, I am now convinced that President Trump is on the edge of a historic victory.
The real breakthrough for me came as I reviewed his decisions and maneuvers, not from the standpoint of American unilateralism but from the standpoint of the leader of a remarkable coalition, the largest one ever put together in the modern Middle East.
Everyone understands that Israel is an important ally. What is little discussed is the depth of support from the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and other countries in the region.
It must be sobering for the Iranian dictatorship to realize that it does not have a single ally willing to challenge the American naval blockade. Slowly, gradually and timidly, our European allies are lining up to help with the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.
A great deal of Mr. Trump’s maneuvering against Iran will make sense once he is seen as a coalition leader, not just a unilateral American president.
I spent much of the past few weeks reviewing kinetic options. These include winning the battle of the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz and, if necessary, using the shocking and shattering level of force that President Nixon and Secretary of State Henry Kissinger used against Hanoi and Haiphong in 1972. (Both leaders believed it was what persuaded the North Vietnamese to agree to a truce and the release of American prisoners of war.)
If this were a unilateral American campaign, I could enthusiastically support a more aggressive kinetic campaign. However, it is also clear that it would shatter the coalition because our Arab allies are convinced that Iran could still do enormous damage to their oil fields and infrastructure.
Coalitions are inherently slower than unilateral campaigns, but the former ultimately bring vastly more power to the fight.
I am as frustrated as everyone else by the pace of talking with the dictatorship in Iran, but having reviewed the correlation of forces and the options available to the coalition on one side and the religiously motivated dictatorship on the other, I am prepared to assert that Mr. Trump’s coalition leadership is within reach of an enormous, historic victory. It is something hardly any of the president’s critics wish to acknowledge.
If the Iranian dictatorship ultimately proves to be hopelessly committed to a suicidal position, there will be plenty of time for a kinetic campaign of enormous power and effectiveness. Either way, we are on the verge of an astonishing win for Western values and a safer Middle East.
• Newt Gingrich served as speaker of the House from 1995 to 1999.
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