OPINION:
Vladimir Putin is scared.
A report attributed to a European intelligence service indicates that the once-feared Russian ruler has retreated into secret bunkers, that his inner circle has been banned from using internet-connected phones or public transportation and that Kremlin officials, cooks, photographers and bodyguards are under intense surveillance.
So much surveillance has been redirected to Mr. Putin’s inner circle that some Federal Security Bureau officers say it is hampering crime fighting.
Mr. Putin even placed the Kremlin on high alert in March because of “the risk of a plot or coup attempt against the Russian president,” according to IStories, the Russian investigative outlet that obtained the report. “In particular, [Mr. Putin] fears the use of drones for a possible assassination attempt by members of the Russian political elite,” said the report, naming former Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu as a “potential destabilizing actor.”
Video of Mr. Putin laying a wreath at the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier in Moscow was released June 22, but Radio Liberty recently reported evidence suggesting the Kremlin is using prerecorded footage to cover up the fact that their leader is in hiding.
Mr. Putin should be concerned.
The mounting costs of his illegal invasion of Ukraine have caused significant harm to Russia. When Moscow invaded in 2022, some predicted that Kyiv would fall within days. Yet Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has inspired the country to fight, and his nation has emerged as a resilient underdog in a 21st-century David-and-Goliath struggle.
Earlier this year, the Center for Strategic & International Studies reported that contrary to Mr. Putin’s claims that Russia is “advancing with confidence [and] defeating enemy forces,” its military has suffered 1.2 million casualties with 325,000 soldiers killed, amounting to “more losses than any major power in any war since World War II.”
Mr. Putin’s losses have not only weakened Russia militarily. They have also undermined the aura of Moscow’s inevitable victory on which his rule depends.
A year ago, U.S. European Commander Gen. Christopher Cavoli told lawmakers that Russia lost more than 4,000 tanks, which he described as “the inventory almost of the United States tank corps.” He added that Moscow’s losses “obviously have had a rapid and deleterious effect on their ability to fight.”
These numbers dwarf the Soviet Union’s losses in Afghanistan: 14,453 troops and 147 tanks. Today, many historians consider the failed invasion a catalyst for the bloc’s collapse.
Despite these staggering losses, Russia has gained incremental territory relative to its losses, and the damage extends beyond the battlefields. “Russian manufacturing is declining, consumer demand is weakening, inflation remains stubbornly high, and the country faces a labor crunch,” according to CSIS.
As military-age men are being forcibly conscripted, Russia’s labor minister has projected a shortage of 2.4 million workers by 2030, while energy earnings have dropped by a fifth, according to a Rand Corp. report titled “The War Is Coming Home to Russia.”
Surging costs have forced widespread business closures amid the exodus of several hundred major international companies and the departure of several hundred thousand Russians. As economic growth slows to near zero, the Kremlin has responded by raising taxes and VAT rates.
These wounds cut even deeper as Ukraine’s advanced technology strikes at the heart of Russia’s international trade center.
On June 4, the Atlantic Council reported that this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum, often called “Putin’s Davos,” was “shrouded in smoke from burning energy infrastructure” as Ukrainian drones penetrated Russian air defenses.
The council said the attack was an embarrassment for the Russian ruler, who “has been at pains to project confidence in the ultimate success of his invasion [but] was clearly unable to prevent Ukraine from sending drones over one thousand kilometers through Russian airspace to strike strategically important targets in Mr. Putin’s own hometown as he welcomed guests from around the world.”
Last week, Ukraine unleashed one of its largest assaults, with 660 drones in 12 Russian regions, the beginning of a 40-day assault in which Kyiv was targeting chemical plants, energy facilities and naval warships.
Ukraine’s drone warfare tactics have shattered the illusion that Russia’s illegal invasion is a distant conflict.
In April, FOM, a Kremlin-friendly pollster, acknowledged that it “recorded the lowest level of public trust in Mr. Putin since September 2022.”
Because Mr. Putin has been forced to redirect his attention from domestic policy, a power vacuum has opened with oligarchs, technocrats and security service elites competing for influence. As Alexander Baunov of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center noted of Mr. Putin’s purported magic, “its spell is fading.”
Three days before the Ukraine invasion, I opined that Mr. Putin’s use of fear suggests he understands how Leonid Brezhnev was able to overthrow Soviet First Secretary Nikita Khrushchev in 1964.
I wrote that, although the U.S. secretly removed its Jupiter missiles from Turkey to give Nikita Khrushchev cover for reversing course in the Cuban missile crisis, the Politburo’s perception was still an American victory.
Mr. Putin understands the power of perception, which is why he built his career on projecting strength. He probably recognizes that the Soviet perception of Khrushchev as a defeated leader is what forced him out.
For Mr. Putin, the clock is ticking. If the Russian ruler is as smart as he thinks he is, he will seek a way out of Ukraine now. This would give him some plausible deniability, shielding him from a potentially devastating defeat — and consequences far worse than Khrushchev’s countryside exile.
• Jeffrey Scott Shapiro is a Washington Times editorial board member and former senior U.S. official who served in the first Trump administration. In 2023, he was banned from entering the Russian Federation.
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