OPINION:
Socialists. Communists. Capitalists. MAGA. Liberals. Independents. All groups will be represented in the midterm elections in November.
I am sure you care about many social issues, but if you are running a business, you should care primarily about how these elections will affect your company, employees and profitability.
More than one-third of Senate seats are up for election this year, and the Democrats can take control with a net gain of just four seats.
Republicans currently hold a five-seat majority in the House. According to history (and most polls), the Democrats are slightly favored to take control of both the House and Senate. As many as nine seats in the Senate and 37 in the House are considered “competitive,” “leaning” or toss-ups.
However, the margins are slim. Polls have been known to be wrong (Hello, Hillary?), the Democrats trail Republicans in favorability, the effects of new redistricting rules are still not fully understood, and anything can happen between now and November. Many academics, experts and pollsters will be making their predictions in the next few months, but none of them really knows, including me.
No one will have a mandate. Even if the Democrats win both the House and the Senate, the prospect of significant legislation that goes against the president’s priorities (restricting his war powers, tariffs and increasing taxes) would never become law.
That is because the president can veto any bill that lands on his desk, and it takes a two-thirds vote in both houses of Congress to overturn a presidential veto. As Ron Weasley might say: “Not bloody likely.”
If Democrats do win control of either chamber, their main use of the new power will be to shape the 2028 elections. As before, they will spend much of their time investigating and impeaching the president, making the case that he and any of his successors are corrupt, incompetent and unworthy of being in the White House.
It is also likely that a small but loud contingent of Democratic Socialists of America members will use the media to fight their own party on their infinitely reasonable, completely normal social justice issues. These include abolishing the police, taxing the wealthy, opening borders and publicly controlling corporations. And you thought the WWE was entertaining. Just wait!
What this means for your business is that Congress, under Democratic control, will be completely distracted from governing the country and will have little time to consider significant economic legislation. Even if it does, it will not get it through the White House unless it compromises significantly, which we all know will never happen.
That is not great — or maybe it is, depending on how you look at things. However, even if the Republican Party wins control of Congress (and it could happen), do not expect things to be rosy for businesses then either.
Sure, there will be positive things. For starters, President Trump will be emboldened. He will double down on regulatory rollbacks and additional tax-cut proposals, such as relaxing regulations on pesticides and oil exploration, changing healthcare subsidies, imposing new taxes on crypto transactions, indexing capital gains for more tax relief and expanding taxpayer rights.
He will also feel confident in continuing foreign wars and military spending, a boon for any businesses serving these industries.
Did I mention that Mr. Trump will be emboldened? His unchecked spending will continue to widen deficits, which will fuel inflation and keep interest rates elevated. To counter that, he will propose more cuts in services and programs that countless nonprofits and other businesses depend on for their livelihoods.
The president will double down on new tariffs, which will increase costs for some businesses, and on immigration enforcement, further putting pressure on the country’s labor supply. His antics — buoyed by another successful election and used to infuriate his competitors — will be reenergized.
Regardless of who controls Congress, it is certain that the major legislation this country really needs on healthcare, immigration, Social Security reform, government spending and artificial intelligence oversight will not happen during the next two years.
Unresolved challenges — higher healthcare costs, complicated immigration rules, uncertain retirement futures, sticky inflation and unchecked bots controlled by untrustworthy tech companies — will remain unresolved.
My smartest clients know to keep their politics in the ballot box and adapt their companies to the current political and economic environment, regardless of whether they support the governing party. They also know that congressional midterms in these very divided times will not have a significant effect on them.
In 2026, there will either be more of the same or a stalemate. Neither outcome should affect their plans for the next two years.
• Gene Marks, CPA, runs The Marks Group PC, a financial and technology consulting firm near Philadelphia.
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