While Iran reels from aerial attacks, North Korea sits safe in its nuclear fortress

By Andrew Salmon - The Washington Times - Tuesday, July 28, 2026

SEOUL, South Korea — It is easy to condemn North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un for his dictatorial rule, but in terms of strategic pragmatism, his ever-evolving nuclear deterrent looks increasingly prudent.

Mr. Kim’s nuclear force, first bolted onto land-based launch systems, is shifting toward a “nuclear triad” of ground-, sea- and air-based assets.

That expands strategic options, upgrades second-strike capabilities and enables better dispersal and concealment of assets, reducing vulnerability to incoming strikes.

It’s an aggressive, costly strategy, but one that analysts say has been validated by the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, in which Iran — armed with only conventional non-nuclear weapons, has been pummeled by waves of Israeli and American air strikes.

Tehran, unlike Pyongyang, has no nuclear deterrent.

Mr. Kim and his late father, who oversaw the country’s first nuclear detonation in 2006, may have managed, despite the colossal costs of their program, to have attack-proofed one of the world’s most repressive regimes — a foreboding lesson for the West as authoritarian governments around the globe take note.

Mr. Kim’s grip on North Korea has enriched his family and the country’s elites while consigning vast swathes of the population to poverty and disempowerment. His citizens lack the most basic human rights: equality before the law, and freedoms of association, expression, conscience and religion are unknown to North Koreans.

Kim’s calculation

The North Korean dictator understands modern history. Nations that abandoned weapons of mass destruction — Iraq, Libya and Ukraine — have suffered catastrophic regime changes, or outright invasions from external powers. Iran is but the latest example.

Experts grudgingly admit that the Kims’ policy has not only secured their state against attack from the United States, it has also upgraded its leverage with China.

And as Japan announces the start of a nuclear debate, and Saudi Arabia is granted a nuclear deal with the U.S., indications are that other global players are following in North Korea’s bootprints.

A July 16 article in specialist online media 38 North asked, “Is North Korea pursuing a ’Juche-Oriented’ Nuclear Triad?”

“Juche” refers to state founder Kim Il Sung’s concept of self-reliance. “Nuclear triad” references the land-air-sea trio of nuclear-capable assets deployed by major nuclear powers.

China, India, Pakistan, Russia and the United States all field a triad of forces. Israel is believed to possess such capabilities.

France fields a nuclear duo of ballistic missile submarines and aircraft. Britain’s singular nuclear deterrent is submarine-mounted, though London this year announced that it will be acquiring a squadron of nuclear-capable F-35As, granting it a nuclear duo.

Since breaking out in 2006, North Korea’s arsenal of warheads is delivered via widely tested missiles. In 2017, it showcased an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of hitting the continental U.S.

Most of Mr. Kim’s ballistics are mounted on transporter erector launchers — road-borne vehicles that can be dispersed nationwide, hidden in tunnels and under bridges.

Asymmetric North Korea has also showcased some crafty launch pads including the flatbed of a moving train, and a platform on the bed of a lake.

According to 38 North, North Korea currently possesses around 60 warheads. It is working to expand its delivery systems from the ground to the air and sea domains.

It started work on ship-fired, nuclear-capable cruise missiles in 2023, the same year it released images of a ballistic-missile armed submarine. North Korea’s new force of destroyers — two are commissioned, more are in the pipeline — have impressed naval experts with their heavy missile armaments.

Mr. Kim’s air force — arguably, the weakest and least developed of his armed forces — was given a nuclear mission in 2025.

Pyongyang may even boast a nuclear quad: In 2023, it announced Haeil (“Tsunami”) a nuclear-armed underwater drone, designed to create radioactive waves.

Still, 38 North guessed Pyongyang’s sea- and air-launched capabilities will never equal, in terms of missile range and warhead numbers, its land-based assets.

“A road-mobile-dominant nuclear force has the survivability, cost-effectiveness, and scalability North Korea probably sees itself as needing,” the article stated. “Sea- and especially air-based nuclear capabilities will almost certainly remain minor players.”

The costs poverty-stricken North Korea endures for its nuclear force are staggering.

Internally, it has invested massive state resources. Externally, it has suffered over a decade of international sanctions.

Now, global developments may be moving, if not necessarily in Pyongyang’s favor, in a similar direction.

Since the outbreak of the Ukraine war, China and Russia, permanent members of the United Nations Security Council, have effectively ceased to sanction or critique North Korea.

This year, France announced plans to disperse its own nuclear forces around NATO allies. This month, Finland overturned a decades-old policy of refusing any stationing of nuclear arms on its soil.

Japan’s defense minister this month urged his country to open a debate on nuclear weapons.

And last week, U.S. President Trump approved a nuclear-fuel enrichment deal with Saudi Arabia, potentially opening the door for the kingdom’s breakout.

Nuclear payoff

Experts, whatever their distaste for the Kims’ governance, cannot deny that North Korea’s nuclear project has borne fruit.

“After seeing what is happening to Iran, Kim Jong Un has done the right thing not to do a [denuclearization] deal with the U.S.,” said Yang Uk, a defense specialist at Seoul think tank The Asan Institute. “They want to show the U.S. that they are different from Iran: ’We have nuclear weapons, we have a survivable nuclear retaliation capability.”

The ups and downs of democratic governance in Seoul and Washington likely fortified Kimian decision-making.

“They cannot trust democracies which keep changing their presidents and their ruling parties,” Mr. Yang said. “So for North Korea, nuclear was their only choice.”

Atomic arms do more than deter: They grant North Korea prominence in global diplomacy and media.

“Except for his ability to wage war, Kim has nothing else going for him,” said Michael Breen, a Seoul-based biographer of Kim Jong Il. “It is not as if North Korea is a great country.”

Pyongyang’s arsenal dampens adventurism in Washington. It also commands respect in Beijing.

That analysis is buttressed by North Korea’s alliance with Russia, renewed in 2024. In return for sending much-needed ammunition, missiles and troops to assist Moscow against Kiev, Pyongyang has earned energy, grain and arms technologies in return.

Mr. Kim’s export of warrior assets has slashed Pyongyang’s economic dependence upon Beijing, which spiraled after the Soviet Union imploded in 1991.

Publicly, China and North Korea declare they are two nations bound by a bond forged, in blood, during the 1950-53 Korean War - when Chinese intervention saved North Korea from being overrun by U.S.-led forces.

In reality, Pyongyang has been trapped in a humiliating “little brother” relationship with the “big brother” next door for decades.

That may be changing. Mr. Breen cited an analysis by a North Korean defector in the wake of Chinese President Xi Jinping’s high-profile state visit to Pyongyang in June.

“He said that the old North Korean playbook was to play Russia and Chinese off against each other, but what is happening now is that Kim Jong Un is improving relations with Russia and China because he feels more secure, more independent,” Mr. Breen said. “He is not a beggar rattling his can in front of both of them.”