Disney’s live-action ‘Moana’ tracks toward steep theatrical loss

Walt Disney Co.’s live-action remake of “Moana” opened to $43 million domestically and $95 million worldwide over the weekend, a debut so far below expectations that trade analysts say the studio is tracking toward a significant loss on the film’s theatrical run — similar to 2025’s “Snow White,” which reportedly lost around $100 million.

The remake, which cost a reported $250 million to produce before marketing, arrived a decade after Disney’s 2016 animated original and less than two years after the billion-dollar animated sequel “Moana 2.” Box office analysts, including FranchiseRe’s David A. Gross and Exhibitor Relations’ Jeff Bock, said that timing left little room for the nostalgia that has powered Disney’s most successful live-action redos.

Director Thomas Kail’s film, starring Dwayne Johnson as the demigod Maui and newcomer Catherine Laga’aia as the title character, earned an A- CinemaScore from moviegoers but drew a critical panning, holding in the mid-30s on Rotten Tomatoes’ critics’ score. Boxoffice Pro put the film’s per-screen average at $11,097 across 3,875 North American theaters — below even the trade outlet’s own final forecast of $45 million to $55 million, and well short of the $60 million to $65 million domestic opening Disney had projected internally heading into the weekend.

Mr. Gross said Disney’s timing worked against the property this time around.

“This story wasn’t ready to come back, and audiences are not rushing to see it,” he said.

The result puts “Moana” in the same tier as 2025’s “Snow White,” which opened to $42.2 million domestically and finished its run with roughly $205 million worldwide against its own quarter-billion-dollar budget. Disney has otherwise had a strong track record with the strategy: “Beauty and the Beast,” “The Lion King,” “Aladdin” and last year’s “Lilo & Stitch” all opened above $100 million domestically and went on to cross $1 billion globally.

Comscore’s senior media analyst, Paul Dergarabedian, said the film’s fate now hinges on how well it holds up in the coming weeks rather than its opening numbers alone.

“That means you don’t want to see a 60-70% second-weekend drop,” Mr. Dergarabedian said.

“Moana” topped the weekend chart ahead of Universal’s “Minions & Monsters,” which added $20.5 million in its second weekend, and Disney’s own “Toy Story 5,” which brought in $18.5 million in its fourth weekend, according to Forbes. Both family-friendly competitors likely cut into “Moana’s” potential audience, analysts said.

Disney is not expected to abandon the live-action remake strategy that has become one of its most lucrative franchises. A live-action “Tangled,” based on the 2010 animated film, is currently in production, and studio watchers expect Disney to eventually revisit “Frozen” and other properties from the 2010s. But “Moana’s” stumble, following the box office disappointment of “Snow White” last year, suggests Disney may need to leave more distance between animated hits and their live-action counterparts going forward.

The “Moana” franchise remains a significant asset for Disney beyond the box office, having generated more than 22 million in toy sales and billions of music streams since the original film’s 2016 release, with the 2016 animated version still ranking among the most-watched titles on Disney+.