OPINION:
According to my friends at the Middle East Media Research Institute, the Turkish press has been reporting that the Istanbul-based nongovernmental organization Insan Hak ve Hurriyetleri Insani Yardim Vakfi (Human Rights and Freedoms Humanitarian Aid Foundation) has been involved in moving weapons to jihadi groups in Syria.
This has been going on for 12 years, according to MEMRI, and could not have been achieved without the Turkish government’s permission.
This is interesting only because of the pseudo-war now taking place between Israel, Turkey and Syria — a country that borders both.
As reported by this newspaper, Israel has bombed several sites inside Syria and recently made an incursion that included about 100 troops near the city of Quneitra.
One bombing hit an old air base that was reportedly being rebuilt to host Turkish forces (Ankara denies this). The U.S. and several Arab states criticized the move, but our criticism seems unjustified.
So far, neither country has attacked the other. An attack would bring into play both NATO’s Article 5 obligations and the new Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani mutual defense pact. If either is invoked, the situation in the Middle East would become even more upside-down.
If, for example, the Israelis attacked Turkish forces in Syria, both treaties would come into play. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would likely call for Turkey’s defense under both NATO and the Saudi-Turkish-Pakistani pacts.
The Israelis are too smart to do that, but they could be forced into it if Turkey’s forces in Syria become more aggressive.
Israel has the right to defend itself in Syria to whatever extent it believes necessary. On Aug. 20, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said: “Erdogan is dragging Turkey into dangerous adventures in Syria. Israel will not allow any actor to threaten its security. Erdogan would be better off continuing to deliver empty, delusional speeches against Israel in the Turkish parliament rather than testing Israel’s determination to defend itself.”
If the Israelis believed that the Turkish forces in Syria posed a direct threat to their security, they would have reason to attack the Turks. Though that is possible, the Turkish forces in Syria could — as the Germans did with Poland at the outset of World War II — pretend they had been attacked by the Israelis and try to force NATO into defending them against Israel.
At that point, because NATO is extraordinarily weak, more diplomats would be scrambling to make peace than ever before. The situation would not be resolved to anyone’s satisfaction, except for Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. Both want to render NATO a nullity, and that would suffice.
The question boils down to whether Mr. Erdogan wants to take on the burden of dissolving NATO. He may not want to at this point, but he has not shown any discernment in international politics for quite some time.
As this column pointed out last week, less than six months after Hamas’ genocidal attack on Israel in October 2023, Mr. Erdogan said in an Istanbul speech, “No one can make us qualify Hamas as a terrorist organization. … Turkey is a country that speaks openly with Hamas leaders and firmly backs them.”
He has also compared Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler and Israel’s treatment of Gaza Strip residents to the treatment of Jewish prisoners in Nazi concentration camps in World War II, during which 6 million Jews were murdered.
Those comparisons make Mr. Erdogan appear to be the radical Islamist he is. Turkey has been a NATO member since 1952. How long can the organization tolerate a member who openly sides with Islamic terrorists?
The Turkish-Israeli quasi-war in Syria will continue at a low pitch. Kurdish forces will be both attacked and defended. Mr. Erdogan will continue to make anti-Israel speeches, and the speeches will be refuted by the Israelis.
Turkish NGOs will continue to fund and supply terrorists, with Mr. Erdogan’s permission.
At this point, Mr. Erdogan holds all the cards. Will he openly attack Israeli forces or hold fast with his support of terrorists? Will he attempt to break up NATO with the pretense of an attack by Israel? He is quite capable of anything.
• Jed Babbin is a national security and foreign affairs columnist for The Washington Times and a contributing editor for The American Spectator.
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