OPINION:
On Monday, the 60-day U.S.-Iran “cease-fire” expired.
When President Trump initially launched “Operation Epic Fury” against Iran on Feb. 28, 2026, he assured the American people that the military offensive wouldn’t last long, stating that the campaign would take four to five weeks.
It’s been 24 weeks and five days since Mr. Trump made those assurances, and the end of the conflict is nowhere in sight.
On Monday, Mr. Trump told Fox News that he is in “no hurry” to settle the dispute as a backchannel with Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials remains open despite Tehran’s public defiance. His message was that Iran should wave the white flag, something they’ve so far been unwilling to do.
Control over the Strait of Hormuz seems to be at a stalemate. On March 2, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said in a press conference: “This is not Iraq. This is not endless … This is the opposite. This operation [has] a clear, devastating, decisive mission: Destroy the missile threat, destroy the navy, no nukes.”
Absent the mission set was to secure the Strait of Hormuz — an obvious oversight or miscalculation the administration seems to have made before entering the conflict. Roughly a quarter of global petroleum trade flows through the strait, averaging 20 million to 21 million barrels per day.
Today, roughly 8 million to 9 million barrels are moving through the strait with U.S. military assistance.
Energy Secretary Chris Wright said last week that another 5 million to 7 million barrels a day are being shipped via newly upgraded pipelines and export facilities, with total oil flows in the region averaging about 15 million barrels per day. That’s roughly equal to the 20 million barrels exported daily before the war.
Still, Iran, believing it can win the grudge match over the strait, has said it’s reached an agreement with Oman on future shipping routes without U.S. participation. A similar pact was discussed in May, where both Iran and Oman would charge commercial vessels a toll to enter the international waterway.
At the time, Mr. Trump said, “Oman will behave just like everybody else, or we’ll have to blow them up.”
Nothing happened. Oman and Iran continued their negotiations without U.S. input. Despite the president’s assertions, the U.S. is in control of the waterway; Iran’s continued threats and attacks on ships through the strait have left transit at a virtual standstill.
On Monday, Mr. Trump renewed his threat against Oman, telling Fox News, “If Oman gets in the way, we’ll bomb the s—- out of them.” Essentially, it’s the same toothless threat he leveled four months ago.
Mr. Trump seems to believe an economic pressure campaign will eventually bring Iran to negotiate with the U.S. in good faith. Perhaps. Not likely.
The Iranians seem to believe they can withstand the U.S. blockade and put enough political pressure on the president to give up on the dispute before the mid-term elections. Worst case, it believes it can survive economic collapse and wait out Mr. Trump’s term in office.
Over the weekend, the Wall Street Journal reported that during the two-month “ceasefire,” Iran was preparing for a bigger fight.
“Their efforts include giving the powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps more control of the country’s regular army, appointing hardened veterans of the war with Iraq and past internal crackdowns to key posts, expanding domestic counterintelligence operations and ramping up production of missiles and drones,” the Journal reported. “The leadership quickly seized the initiative, attacking ships to tighten Iran’s grip on Hormuz and expanding the battlefield to the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia has used to get around Iran’s chokehold on the Persian Gulf.”
The Iranians seem dead set on a suicide mission and the U.S. should deliver it to them.
On March 11, Mr. Trump told Axios, the conflict with Iran would be over “soon” because there was “practically nothing left to target.” He added, “Any time I want it to end, it will end.”
End it, President Trump.
• Kelly Sadler is the commentary editor at The Washington Times.
Follow the author
Please read our comment policy before commenting.