SEOUL, South Korea — South Korea’s political crisis has no end in sight as citizens mull the aftershocks of a deadly air crash, making 2025 look far from upbeat.
What was long seen as one of America’s most stable and prosperous allies in the region was rocked in December with a failed effort to impose martial law, a plane crash that killed 179 people, and the prospect of further political gridlock, impeachment battles and partisan bitterness.
South Korea is “currently confronted with an unprecedentedly serious situation,” acting President Choi Sang-mok acknowledged in a somber New Year’s Day address. “The government will dedicate itself to ensuring stability in all areas, including national defense, diplomacy, economy and society.”
While the Muan International Airport heartbreak grips South Korea’s attention, its political and judicial crises lurch onward. On Wednesday, precedent was broken with the potential arrest of a sitting South Korean president while Mr. Choi moved to assuage the opposition-controlled National Assembly.
Mr. Choi is the third man to lead the nation in the past month. The fragility of political leadership has sparked diplomatic uncertainty and economic volatility in a nation that grants U.S. troops their only mainland Asia footprint and is a central node in global technology supply chains.
Unhappy new year
A national week of mourning after the crash-landing of a Jeju Air Boeing 737-800 on Sunday has toned down, postponed or canceled New Year’s celebrations. Customary fireworks shows have been called off, and central Seoul light and lantern festivals were reportedly in “quiet mode.”
Investigators from South Korea and the U.S. have embarked on what looks to be a lengthy process to determine what caused the crash. A team of eight U.S. investigators — one from the Federal Aviation Administration, three from the National Transportation Safety Board and four from Boeing — made their first on-site inspection of the crash site Tuesday.
Harsh questions pointing to multiple levels of human error have been raised domestically and internationally.
Why did the pilots of the stricken aircraft not follow crisis control protocols in the air? Why did they not lower their undercarriage?
Why did the airport’s control tower permit a crash-landing in the opposite direction of landing on a runway, where a concrete barrier lay beyond the tarmac? Why did authorities allow concrete to construct a stand for navigation antennas rather than less-rigid materials?
The horror of the crash briefly eclipsed a national governance crisis now roaring back into the headlines. The crisis was sparked when President Yoon Suk Yeol, infuriated by parliamentary obstructionism, stunned the nation by declaring martial law on Dec. 3.
The National Assembly voted down martial law within hours, and Mr. Yoon was impeached 11 days later.
The Constitutional Court will uphold or reject his impeachment in the coming months. Mr. Yoon is the third of recent South Korean presidents to be impeached, so court protocols are well-oiled.
The political crisis is far from contained as national demonstrations continue and other agencies assert themselves. On Wednesday, a new front in the struggle was opened.
A court granted arrest and search warrants to a group of agencies — the Corruption Investigation Office for High-Ranking Officials and police and military investigation arms — which have accused Mr. Yoon of treason.
An arrest would be a first for a sitting South Korean president, though many have gone behind bars after leaving office. The court’s decision Wednesday sets up a legal battle with Mr. Yoon’s attorneys and could ignite a civil war among government agencies.
Mr. Yoon has ignored multiple summonses from investigators, and his security team has prevented police seeking evidence from entering the presidential compound.
While the executive faces immense pressure, the opposition-controlled legislature faces upheavals. In the National Assembly on Friday, the Democratic Party of Korea, the majority opposition, sought the impeachment of Mr. Yoon’s first acting successor, Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, for refusing to sign off on the appointment of three justices to fill the nine-member bench of the Constitutional Court.
Mr. Yoon is the third South Korean president to be impeached, but never before have a president and his successor suffered that fate.
Mr. Choi, who took office after Mr. Han’s exit, approved the appointments of two justices to the court on Wednesday: one by the DPK and one by Mr. Yoon’s conservative People Power Party. He held off on appointing the third, proposed by the DPK. Mr. Choi’s moves would give the court eight judges, one short of its full complement.
“I decided to appoint the Constitutional Court justices because of the need to end the political uncertainty and social conflict as soon as possible,” he said.
It was unclear whether the opposition would be satisfied. At least six judges on the nine-member court must vote in favor of impeachment. If impeachment is upheld, a presidential election would be called within two months. Those timings argue against a swift resolution.
Pressures all around
Political speculation in Seoul has focused on which pivotal political figure will face justice first: Mr. Yoon or opposition DPK leader Lee Myung, who faces charges related to alleged corruption and perjury as a local politician.
Another question is whether the crisis-battered PPP can remain intact as a political force.
“Looking at the DPK led by Lee Jae-myung these days, it seems like a well-trained army. … They are in perfect order,” columnist Kim Dae-jung wrote in the conservative Chosun Ilbo newspaper. Turning to the conservative forces, he wrote, “To put it harshly, it is a mess. It is not just that there is no order, but that they are in conflict with each other.”
The left-wing Hankyoreh newspaper shot back that Mr. Yoon and his party had no one but themselves to blame.
“As the PPP continues to follow the path of ‘a party that supports internal rebellion,’ it will become increasingly distant from the majority of the public and will inevitably become isolated,” the paper editorialized.
With the legislature having asserted its dominance over the executive via what one observer calls “governance by impeachment,” national leadership remains a fraught question. South Korea’s well-oiled bureaucratic and business sectors continue to operate, but the new year also presents fresh risks from abroad.
Lacking certainty about their future, officials cannot build ties with the incoming Trump administration in Washington.
The fragile state of national leadership leaves many devoutly hoping that no North Korean or foreign policy crisis erupts.
The economy has emerged as yet another source of anxiety. Bank of Korea analyses say South Korea hit 16-year lows in the fourth quarter, comparable to the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Big exporting businesses may benefit from lower prices for their goods, but the average South Korean will face higher prices for imported goods and overseas travel.
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