SEOUL, South Korea — North Korean forces remain at the base while Chinese and Russian warships conduct joint drills in what appears to be a counter to tightening cooperation between the United States and its Indo-Pacific allies.
The paradigm is puzzling, particularly given the value Pyongyang could contribute to a coalition of anti-U.S. powers in the region.
The isolated state commands a strategic location in Northeast Asia and deploys a constant stream of harsh rhetoric toward the United States and its allies. It fields weapons of mass destruction and a 1 million-strong military.
Yet it has joined none of the land, air and naval drills that China and Russia have conducted in recent years on the Eurasian landmass or in the Sea of Japan or the South China Sea.
North Korea’s odd-man-out status looks even more unlikely when viewed historically. Beijing, Moscow and Pyongyang were aligned against U.S.-led forces during the 1950-1953 Korean War, which ended in a truce 70 years ago.
While North Korea stays on the sidelines, 2023 is proving a golden year for U.S.-led initiatives to rally allies in the region against the increasingly assertive China and Russia.
Enabled by conservative administrations in Manila, Seoul and Tokyo and galvanized by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Washington is overseeing a tightening web of alliances and strategic basing structures from northern Australia and western South Korea to Japan’s Ryukyu chain and the Philippines’ northern region of Luzon.
Last week, a U.S. nuclear-capable submarine docked in South Korea — the first such port call in decades. The two allies also held the inaugural meeting of the Nuclear Consultative Group, which they created after a bilateral summit in Washington in April.
Given this, the ever-bristling, risk-tolerant Pyongyang might appear to be a perfect regional partner for an anti-U.S. alliance, but experts say China and Russia keep North Korea at arm’s length for diplomatic, military and even reputational reasons.
“The North Koreans don’t have the capability [to join the drills]. That is the practical reason,” said Go Myong-hyun, a North Korean watcher at Seoul’s Asan Institute for Policy Studies. “The other reason is that North Korea is toxic. If China or Russia develop the perception that they have influence over it, they would be held responsible for its behavior.”
North Korea, traditionally jealous of its strategic autonomy, has reasons for standing alone.
Undeclared alliance, missing partner
Beijing and Moscow have no formal alliance but say their partnership has no limits. Although most of Moscow’s forces are mired in Ukraine, that partnership is visible in the Indo-Pacific. Troops in Russia’s Far East, notably those based in Vladivostok, drill with Chinese counterparts.
Chinese and Russian vessels are conducting “Northern Interaction 2023” this month in the East Sea/Sea of Japan. Three Russian destroyers and a corvette are exercising with two Chinese destroyers, two frigates and a supply ship.
Drills have included the massive-scale “Vostok 18” land exercises in 2018, which Chinese army units joined, and regular joint warplane flights over waters separating South Korea and Japan.
Despite its hostility toward Washington, North Korea participated in none of the exercises despite some seeming overtures on both sides.
Since the start of the war in Ukraine, China and Russia have extended diplomatic assistance to North Korea by blocking U.S.-led efforts to add international sanctions on the regime for its missile testing program.
The Biden administration has accused North Korea of supplying ammunition to Russia to help in the Ukraine operation, but Pyongyang denies the allegations.
Russian media personalities’ statements that North Korea could send labor or even combat troops to the war zone have not been borne out.
Odd man out
Given the need for allies, it would seem North Korea would be a useful — if eccentric — partner for an anti-Western coalition. One reason an alliance has not been formed is diplomatic. Even authoritarian states such as China and Russia are leery of dealing with brutal and mercurial North Korean leader Kim Jong-un.
“Open military cooperation with a rogue state would have a bad impact on the reputation of both China and Russia as North Korea is an open challenge to the U.N.-designated world system,” said Andrei Lankov, a Russian expert on North Korea who teaches at Seoul’s Kookmin University.
China, he said, “positions itself as a protector of multilateralism against U.S. hegemony, while Russia understands that its seat on the U.N. Security Council is one of its most important foreign policy assets and doesn’t want to change it.”
Another reason relates to national prejudices.
“There is a tradition of despising North Korea in China, and especially in Russia,” Mr. Lankov said. “You are not going to please [Russian President Vladimir] Putin by comparing him to Kim. For generations of Russians, North Korea was seen as a bizarre, comical and highly unpleasant dictatorship.”
Mr. Lankov suggested that Russians’ traditional views of North Korea are similar to Americans’ views of Latin American dictatorships in the decades after World War II.
The relationship between Seoul and Washington has had ups and downs, but the South Korean public is grateful for U.S. support during the Korean War. That is visible in the excellent treatment of visiting veterans and the public support for Seoul’s alliance with Washington despite several bilateral irritants.
U.S. troops remain in South Korea, but Chinese units withdrew from North Korea in 1958. That reflects Pyongyang’s differing stance toward its erstwhile allies.
“For North Korea, it was a quid pro quo relationship. They look at the support from the Chinese and Soviets as a larger pursuit of communist goals, so to them, it was only natural that these nations should have supported them,” said Chun In-bum, a retired South Korean general. “And North Korea also promotes the idea that during the [Chinese Civil War], many Koreans fought for the communists, so it was a balance.”
Yet another reason relates to the North Korean military. While China and Russia boast modern warships and aircraft, struggling Pyongyang has focused on a few asymmetric assets that do not complement conventional forces.
“North Korea concentrates on what matters: nuclear arms, ballistic missiles and light infantry/special forces,” said Mr. Lankov. Its naval and air forces, by contrast, are given inferior equipment and “don’t have the fuel to operate over longer distances.”
North Korea under Mr. Kim has increasingly isolated itself while pursuing a policy of maximum strategic autonomy, relying on no ally to protect it. That approach has been strained by North Korea’s extensive economic reliance on China, which Pyongyang’s leadership resents.
“North Korea understands that too much influence from Russia or China threatens their supreme leader,” Mr. Chun said. “So they try to keep a good distance.”
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