Ron Rivera, it turns out, is a fan of The Wave.
The Washington Commanders coach laughed when he recalled noticing fans leading the cheer during Saturday’s preseason finale win over the Cincinnati Bengals. The moment may have been a way for fans to entertain themselves in an otherwise dull game. But to Rivera, the moment signified that an “energy” had returned to FedEx Field. He couldn’t recall another instance of The Wave happening at the stadium, preseason or otherwise.
“There’s a vibe that we’re trying to connect with,” Rivera said.
The Commanders, these days, are all about vibes in the early period of the Josh Harris era. And since the team was officially sold last month, Washington has yet to lose a game. Yes, it may be preseason — but Washington went undefeated in the exhibition contests for the first time since 2013. Rivera told reporters he hoped the team could “feed off” that once the regular season begins next month.
Unfortunately for the Commanders, the correlation between preseason and regular season success is practically nonexistent.
There are numerous examples of teams going undefeated in the preseason — only to stink up the joint once the real action begins. Heck, take it from the 2013 Redskins. After going 4-0 in August, Washington finished 3-13 in a tumultuous year that cost Mike Shanahan and most of his staff their jobs.
The 2008 Detroit Lions may be the most famous example of the preseason being misleading. The Lions became the first team in NFL history to go 0-16, despite winning their four preseason games. (The second team to go 0-16, the 2017 Cleveland Browns, also went 4-0 in the preseason that year.)
Last season, the teams finishing with the worst and second-worst records — the Chicago Bears and the Houston Texans — went undefeated in the preseason. The Bears and the Texans finished 3-14 and 3-14-1 respectively.
Remember the Baltimore Ravens and their vaunted preseason winning streak that dated back to 2016? As impressive as it was to win 24 preseason games in a row, the Ravens made the playoffs in only three of the six seasons the streak was active (not counting 2020 when there was no preseason).
“Yeah, you can’t get too high off this,” Commanders center Nick Gates said of Washington’s 3-0 preseason record. “But also (Pittsburgh Steelers coach) Mike Tomlin said it: You can’t box without sparring. You need the preseason to get yourself going and get yourself ready.”
Gates’ point hits on why coaches and players still find the preseason to be valuable, even if the results are meaningless. Teams use the exhibition season to gear up for the 18-week marathon ahead, with each club varying in their approach.
The Commanders hardly played any of their starters in Saturday’s finale against the Cincinnati Bengals. But around the league, the New York Jets, Jacksonville Jaguars and Miami Dolphins were among the handful of teams to take the opposite route. In the Jets’ case, New York used the last game as a way for quarterback Aaron Rodgers to get live reps with his new team before Week 1.
A 2022 study from FiveThirtyEight found there was no correlation between the preseason and regular season in individual statistics like passer rating, rushing yards per attempt and receiving yards per game. There are exceptions — the article cites former Bears running back Matt Forte’s 89-yard run in his third season being a precursor for a breakout year — but most of the time, those are one-offs. The article said the preseason does provide clues for the regular season, but those clues are surrounded by plenty of “red herrings.”
The most interesting question of the Commanders’ coming season will be whether quarterback Sam Howell’s impressive preseason was a sign of a breakout campaign — or a red herring. The 22-year-old’s passer rating of 122 was the highest by a Washington quarterback in the preseason since Kirk Cousins’ 129.6 in 2013.
Howell displayed above-average accuracy by completing 75% of his passes and making quick decisions to help those throws. But he was sacked three times, and the second-year signal caller took the blame for all three.
ESPN’s Dan Orlovsky said Howell will have to show he can handle pressure from defenses.
“Defensive coordinators are sitting there watching (the preseason), going, ‘If you don’t show you can handle this stuff, we’re going to send it every stinking play,’” Orlovsky said on a recent “NFL Live” segment. “If I was Sam Howell and Washington, I would expect to get blitzed a ton early in the season.”
Orlovsky can also more than tell you how the preseason hardly predicts anything. He was a quarterback for the Lions in 2008.
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