Twice, the Maryland Terrapins had an opportunity to clinch at least a share of the Big Ten regular-season title. Twice, the Terrapins bungled those chances away with back-to-back losses to Michigan State and Rutgers.
Now, with five days left in the season, four teams have a mathematical shot at winning the regular-season title and landing the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten Tournament.
Michigan State came from behind by two games by beating Maryland head-to-head on Saturday, then eking out another ranked opponent in Penn State on Tuesday. The Spartans tied the Terrapins for first place at 13-6.
Right behind them are Illinois and Wisconsin at 12-6, each with two games left to play.
Based on the conference’s seeding tiebreakers, Maryland has just two paths to the No. 1 seed in next week’s tournament in Indianapolis. If the Terrapins beat Michigan in their regular season finale Sunday and Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin all lose once more the rest of the way, the Terrapins lock up the regular-season title and the No. 1 conference seed, no tiebreaker necessary.
If Maryland and Illinois finish in a two-way tie at 14-6, Maryland will be the No. 1 seed thanks to having swept Illinois head-to-head in the regular season. But a two-way tie between Maryland and Wisconsin would favor the Badgers because they beat the Terrapins in their only head-to-head matchup.
Should Maryland and Michigan State tie, after splitting their season series, the rules say to compare records against the next highest position in the regular-season standings. At season’s end, this could be occupied by a number of teams, so it’s impossible to say how this will look yet.
Then there’s the matter of ties with three or more teams.
The first step of this tiebreaker is to compare winning percentages against the other teams in the group. So in the very possible scenario of a four-way tie at 14-6 or 13-7, it would actually sort itself out quite neatly:
1. Michigan State (.667 winning percentage against Maryland, Illinois and Wisconsin)
2. Maryland (.600 winning percentage against Michigan State, Illinois and Wisconsin)
3. Wisconsin (.500 winning percentage against Maryland, Michigan State and Illinois)
4. Illinois (.200 winning percentage against Maryland, Michigan State and Wisconsin)
Here’s one more scenario to consider: a three-way tie for first. Say Maryland, Michigan State and Illinois end up tied like this. Both teams swept the Illini in the season series, pushing them down to third right away.
Maryland and Michigan State would have identical .750 winning percentages in this group and move to the next step: “If the remaining teams are still tied, then each tied team’s record shall be compared to the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.”
But because this scenario starts with a three-way tie atop the standings, the Terrapins and Spartans would start that process with the fourth-place team — likely Wisconsin, which Michigan State split head-to-head while Maryland lost to the Badgers in their one meeting. The Spartans win again.
While unlikely, a three-way tie between Maryland, Illinois and Wisconsin without Michigan State favors the Terrapins, who own the best record against that group (2-1).
Because Illinois and Wisconsin don’t fare well in multi-team tiebreak scenarios, the easiest path for each team is to win its final two games to get to 14-6 and hope the other three teams in contention lose out.
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