OPINION:
Traditional politicians have not yet realized that there will be a tectonic shift in voter demographics caused by the coronavirus pandemic. Conventional political analysts at both ends of the political spectrum are still talking about border states and swing voters, and they are missing the new battle lines that the virus has drawn. The two camps can be roughly categorized as the openers and the groundhogs.
The openers are those who want the economy to reopen as quickly as possible and accept the risks associated with the return to something approaching normal commerce. That doesn’t mean that they are preaching irresponsibility. They advocate keeping our most vulnerable citizens “bubble wrapped,” but there is an increasing realization that — until a vaccine is developed — the best approach is to let the healthy members of the population take the risks associated with herd immunity. President Trump is the leading advocate for the openers.
The groundhogs are those who take the safety-first approach of keeping the economy closed until the danger is past or a vaccine developed. This group has become fascinated with the casualty rate and casting blame for the various manifestations of the pandemic.
Joe Biden is emerging leader of the groundhogs from an undisclosed location in his basement. Second to Mr. Biden is New York’s Gov. Mario Cuomo, who has publicly claimed that his main concentration is the number of deaths and has shown callous unconcern for the plight of New York’s businesses. Despite this, he has presided over the state with the nation’s highest death rate, particularly among seniors many of whom were sent from hospitals to infected nursing homes for “rehabilitation” while a Navy hospital ship and the Javits Center went underutilized.
Black humor in upstate New York has it that the curve flattened when the state government began to run out of people to kill. Although I’m over 70 — and thus in an at-risk group — I don’t personally have much of a dog in the fight. Other than teaching a college course online rather than in the classroom, the shutdown hasn’t impacted me much.
In late March and April, most Americans were groundhogs, but now that we have a better understanding of the virus and how to deal with it, the ranks of the openers are growing exponentially. As that happens, the divide is becoming increasingly political. Not all the openers are Republican and not all the groundhogs are Democrats, but the real swing voters in the next election will be reformed groundhogs.
Donald Trump instinctively realized this at least three weeks ago and jumped on the opener bandwagon. I suspect that is why he has distanced himself from Dr. Anthony Fauci and refuses to wear a mask in public. Those are not-so-subtle messages. Mr. Trump has an instinctive grasp for public trending. Despite the current unrest, he sees that November will be an economy election.
At the present time, the groundhogs are still in the majority; but that will likely change radically as the election approaches. The Black Lives Matter protests and riots made much of social distancing moot for a significant portion of our progressive population. Many became openers despite themselves, and the rioters among the protesters have likely pushed many fence sitters into Republican ranks. As in 2016, these converts will likely keep quiet but vote GOP in November.
If the Democrats continue along the trajectory of casting blame and concentrating on the body counts, they will lose in November. A virtual convention will be the signal that they have chosen that path. If the Republicans are smart, they will refocus on opening the economy and base their metrics on jobs added and businesses reopened.
Mr. Trump should retool his crisis updates to a weekly briefing focusing on the economic recovery with no more casualty or respirator counts. The key metric should be job growth with a national count and then one detailing the 10 best and worst states on job recovery. Inevitably, the groundhog governors will fare badly, and the openers will shine.
Republican state strategists should riff off on this. It is even possible that New York, Massachusetts and California will come into play as the populations of the Big Apple, Boston and California continue to reel under the economic mismanagement of their groundhog governors.
Every campaign has slogans and 2020 will be no exception. It is likely that the Democratic rallying cry will be “stay safe.” If that is the case, the Republican response should be “no guts, no glory.”
• Gary Anderson is an Adjunct Professor at the George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.