OPINION:
Rush Limbaugh has been falsely accused of fomenting civil war by suggesting that some red states should secede from the Union. That is not what he said.
Mr. Limbaugh is perfectly aware that the issue of state secession from the Union was settled in 1865, but we may well face the distinct possibility of several states breaking up, thus creating new states after the 2022 mid-term elections.
The nation is deeply divided, and nowhere are those divisions as starkly evident as in New York and California, where Democratic majority urban centers tyrannize more conservative rural/suburban regions. This rift has been exacerbated by the mishandling of the COVID-19 situation by the governors of both states. The success of Republican candidates in local and state elections in 2020 may well signal the beginning of a peasant revolt that could actually break up the Empire and Golden states.
While the U.S. Constitution does not allow states to secede, it does allow counties to secede from states as laid out in Article IV Section 3: “New States may be admitted by the Congress into this Union; but no new States shall be formed or erected within the Jurisdiction of any other State; nor any State be formed by the Junction of two or more States, or parts of States, without the Consent of the Legislatures of the States concerned as well as of the Congress.”
At the present time, both California and New York are dominated by urban Democratic majorities, but — as the quality of life continues to decline — there is a distinct possibility that Republicans could gain a majority in the legislatures of either or both in 2022. That would set the stage for the first constitutional requirement for secession of red-leaning counties in both states.
The second requirement would be for a Republican-controlled Congress to approve the break-up of either or both states. It should be noted that nothing in Article 4 Section 1 talks about the need for presidential approval. Mr. Biden would contest this, but he is facing a constructionist U.S. Supreme Court majority.
If the formation of two more states sounds improbable, consider the following. Most Upstate New York sheriffs openly refused to enforce Gov. Andrew Cuomo’s unconstitutional order limiting the freedom of assembly in private homes during Thanksgiving.
The conservative Jewish population of much of metro New York City is in open revolt over the governor’s infringement on religious freedom. The economy of the state has been devastated by policies coming out of Albany. Mr. Cuomo will have two years after the vaccine takes effect to try damage control from his COVID-19 policies, but there is a very real possibility that the Republicans will gain control of both the State House and the Governor’s Mansion in 2022.
In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom has lost control of large swaths of the state, and his hypocritical personal behavior has placed the Democratic majority at risk. California — which once exemplified the American dream — now more closely resembles a Soviet-era state inside the Iron Curtain.
A key to Republican resurgence in both states should be to stress the misery index by highlighting jobs lost, soaring taxes and the percentage of people who have fled both states. These people are seeking a better life in places like Texas, South Carolina, Florida and Tennessee.
At the national level, the possibility of a Republican majority in both houses of Congress is a distinct possibility in 2022. The Democrats are already skirmishing among themselves, and the internal battles will become more pronounced after the inauguration. The differences between the progressive “woke” wing of the party and its moderates are irreconcilable. If the Republicans are smart — and they are not always — they can take back Congress.
This window will be fleeting. The Democrats will quickly realize that any new states will be red, and that will change the Electoral College map for decades. They will spend the next two years trying to do away with the college in any case. That campaign has already begun. If they take control of the Senate, the Democrats will also try to pack the Supreme Court.
It is time for Republican conservatives to stop whining about the presidential election and start concentrating on what can be done in the next two years. California and New York are not the only states ripe for break-up. Maryland and Virginia also have near-irreconcilable red-blue divides. There is opportunity here. 2020 presented the Republican Party with plenty of lemons. Let’s see if someone can make lemonade.
• Gary Anderson lectures on Alternative Analysis at the graduate level.
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