America, come 2020, will have for the first time more Hispanics eligible to vote in the election than blacks — than any other racial or ethnic minority group, for that matter.
That explains why the left is so heck-bent on keeping southern borders as open as can be. But it also shows some positive prospects for Republicans at the polls. In other words: Smile, Republicans. This is one minority voting block the Dems can’t claim in their pockets.
The latest numbers from Pew Research Center’s Social & Demographic Trends division show Hispanics will make up 13 percent of eligible voters in 2020, compared to 12 percent for blacks. That’s 32 million Hispanics versus 30 million blacks.
Asians are coming on strong as a voting block, too, more than doubling their eligibility ranks from the five million who were able to cast ballots in 2000 to an estimated 11 million by 2020. Meanwhile, by 2020, about one-in-10 of all eligible voters will have been born outside of the United States.
These are significant shifts in America’s demographics.
“Taken together,” Pew reported, “this strong growth among minority populations means that a third of eligible voters will be nonwhite in 2020.”
So what’s it all mean?
Well, aside from the fact that Democrats might want to tone down their reparations rhetoric a bit — given blacks are losing their star power as the left’s go-to voting block — the numbers also underscore, boldface and highlight why the left is constantly oh so concerned about the poor migrants from points south: They’re rapidly becoming the big voice of minority in America. General political consensus would say open borders equal voters’ expressions of thanks.
But au contraire, mon ami.
Republicans may actually emerge the winners on this demographic change.
Democrats like to paint President Donald Trump as the Hater of the West, and this administration as unfriendly to all nonwhites, and the Republican Party in general as a poor pick for political representation. But that rhetoric’s wearing thin.
Even with the left’s full-court press to peel back borders and abolish ICE from the face of the earth — that rhetoric’s wearing thin.
How much ground?
Well, a bit.
On 2018, roughly 48 percent of Latino registered voters gave thumbs-up to the Democratic Party over the Republican Party, while another 32 percent said they saw no difference between the two. Fourteen percent, meanwhile, said they believed the GOP was more concerned about Latinos than the Democrats.
But in 2015, fully 59 percent of Hispanic registered voters pointed to Democrats as the party of bigger concern for Latinos. That’s an 11 percentage point drop. In just three years’ time. Democrats must have noticed.
Especially since in the years in between, there was this: “Another election surprise: Many Hispanics backed Trump,” USA Today wrote in a November 2016 headline.
Yep, they did. Not as much as they backed Hillary Clinton — but still, her draw of Hispanic support, at 65 percent, was significantly smaller than the 71 percent Barack Obama won in 2012, and the 72 percent he hubby Bill Clinton secured in 1996.
The trend of Hispanic support for Democrats is downward.
Then there was this, from a CBS News/YouGov 2018 Battleground Tracker survey from November — a question that polled Democrats and asked, “If the Democrats take control of Congress, will the way they handle immigration be too tough, not tough enough [or] about right?” Fully 38 percent of Hispanic participants said “not tough enough.” Another question asked, “Do you believe the [caravan] migrants would ultimately pose a threat to the U.S., or not a threat to the U.S.?” Twenty-four percent of Hispanics said “threat” — and that’s something you don’t generally hear discussed in the mainstream media. Yes, it’s true, some Hispanics in America believe in the rule of law when it comes to border crossings — not chaos and entitlement-minded demands.
These are not mind-blowing numbers for Republicans.
But — and perhaps more importantly — they’re not solid numbers for Democrats, either, particularly when you consider the media’s constant harping on this president’s supposed bias and the Republican Party’s supposed discriminatory tendencies.
Democrats, with Hispanics, are losing ground at the same time Republicans are gaining. And the open borders’ screams from the left don’t seem to be doing the political work that was intended. Republicans have a great opportunity here to grab a big block of voters. Much depends on the GOP messaging; much more depends on voter turnout.
But the fact is, with Hispanics, the Republicans have some momentum on their side.
• Cheryl Chumley can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org or on Twitter, @ckchumley.
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