After the Terrapins’ 73-57 win over Northwestern Saturday, Maryland basketball coach Mark Turgeon was asked about team morale.
“It’s good to win. It’s hard to win,” Turgeon said. “Really happy for the guys. It’s tough, guys. Losing stinks, and what we’ve been through is no fun, but hopefully we’re peaking at the right time.”
He seemed to conclude his frank answer, and the sports information director began to throw it to the next question, but Turgeon spoke up again to add the kicker:
“We are 17-10, if that’s considered losing.”
It was a reminder that Maryland has not had a poor season overall, just one disappointing to fans and perhaps short of the team’s own expectations. With two weeks left in the regular season, the Terrapins are in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2014.
Maryland has made the tourney every year it has played in the Big Ten. For each of the past three years, it was one of seven Big Ten teams to receive bids. But as it stood Sunday morning, ESPN’s Joe Lunardi projected a paltry four teams from the conference to make this year’s field of 68.
The Terrapins have not been able to fully capitalize on a down year for the conference — in which Wisconsin’s sometimes powerful program has been a non-factor, and Northwestern and Minnesota, both ranked in the top 25 of preseason polls, have underperformed.
Saturday’s win was a step in the right direction, but it came after the Terrapins lost four of their previous five games, all of them close ones with single-digit scoring margins.
Players said after the game it felt like the most complete game they’ve put together, but hesitated to talk about the postseason.
“I think it’s just important it was a win because it was the next game on the schedule,” Anthony Cowan said. “We can’t really look into March. We’ve got to take it game by game.”
What’s going right
One good argument for the Terrapins’ tournament chances: KenPom.
College basketball analyst Ken Pomeroy ranked Maryland in the top 40 in the nation in “adjusted efficiency margin.” The advanced metric estimates how a team would fare against the average Division I opponent on a neutral court. Maryland’s number is slightly higher than those of Alabama and Texas, two teams expected to receive bids, and it’s one of several rankings the selection committee considers.
Within the Big Ten, the Terrapins stand out in a couple of key ways. They’re one of the league’s best shooting teams: fourth-best in field goal percentage, third in 3-point field goal percentage and second in free throw percentage.
They also rank third in rebounding margin behind only Michigan State and Ohio State, two teams with star forwards. Maryland’s four-guard starting lineup does not prevent them from crashing the boards effectively. Against Northwestern, Maryland guard Darryl Morsell led with nine rebounds, one more than the Wildcats got from their leading rebounder, Dererk Pardon — a center.
Dion Wiley could be the missing piece for a season-ending surge. Wiley scored 10 points against Northwestern and tied season highs in rebounds (five) and assists (four) he previously set against inferior non-conference opponents.
Turgeon told a slumping Wiley after Maryland’s loss to Penn State that he needed to get on the stat sheet — even in the form of a turnover, he jokingly added. Wiley responded.
“I felt like Dion played a lot harder on the defensive end,” Cowan said. “Not that he doesn’t every night, but today it was a little bit more emphasis on the defensive end. He boxed out every time. He hit shots. He did exactly what we needed him to do.”
If he can continue to deliver peak performance, Wiley would be an ideal complement to Cowan, Kevin Huerter and freshmen Darryl Morsell and Bruno Fernando.
What’s going wrong
When Huerter was asked if he thought the Northwestern game was a signature win for the Terrapins, his answer underscored one of the team’s weaknesses.
“I don’t think so. A signature win I think for us would be on the road against a team in the top tier of the league,” Huerter said. “This team (Northwestern) has been playing really well as of late. They’re kind of a similar position with us in terms of where we are in league standings. But it was a good home win. I don’t think we can call it a signature win yet.”
Maryland is 14-2 in home games this year, with their only losses coming by single-digit deficits to two of the best teams in the country, Purdue and Michigan State. But away from the Xfinity Center, the Terrapins are 3-8 and haven’t won since Dec. 3.
By Huerter’s definition of a signature win, Maryland has only one chance left. The team’s next game is Tuesday at Nebraska, hardly a regular basketball power but certainly in the conference’s “top tier” this year. The Cornhuskers are 10-4 in conference action.
Maryland’s other season-long headache has been its tendency for turnovers. After Saturday’s game, the team’s turnover margin for the year sat at minus-3, which was ranked 329th out of 351 Division I programs. The Terrapins committed 20 turnovers in four of their first 10 games this year, but have tamped down the issue in January and February.
The team also would have had a stronger campaign with its sophomore forward, Justin Jackson, healthy and playing. Jackson was the Terrapins’ second-leading scorer last year but tore his labrum in December and was ruled out for the year.
Regardless, Maryland as comprised today can stay in the NCAA Tournament conversation with a strong finish to its schedule. After Tuesday’s game at Nebraska, the Terrapins come back home to face Rutgers on Saturday night.
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