OPINION:
While many polls gave Hillary Clinton favorable predictions prior to election day, there were polls available that pointed to yesterday’s result.
I averaged the difference between the margin of error and the leader’s percentage in polls from six battleground states: Florida, Ohio, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. All polls presented Donald Trump, Mrs. Clinton and at least third-party challengers Jill Stein or Gary Johnson. The polls were generally conducted from the last week of October through Nov. 8 and published online.
Half of the averages were correct in predicting the winner of that state. Florida polls gave Mr. Trump an average 1-percent lead, and he won. Mr. Trump had a 2-percent average lead in Ohio polls, and he won. He had an average 2.5-percent lead in North Carolina polls and won. Pennsylvania was essentially a tie, and Wisconsin and Michigan both gave Mrs. Clinton an average lead of around 2 percent. Three of these averages were correct, two were wrong and the tie was close. Four out of these six averages were at least close predictions.
People were interested in these podcasts
Political strategists should heed state-wide polls with more than two candidates. This election showed that such polls can predict how a state will vote. In the next election, strategists should focus on the most accurate polls available.
ANDREW DARLINGTON
Baltimore
Please read our comment policy before commenting.