In the 2015-16 season, Washington Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby edged out Tampa Bay Lightning goaltender Ben Bishop and Los Angeles Kings goaltender Jonathan Quick to win the season’s Vezina Trophy, given to the NHL’s top goaltender.
A Vezina-winning hangover can almost be understandable for the 27-year-old goalie, but Holtby has actually put up stronger numbers in one major category through his first 14 games this season than he did just last year.
Looking at Holtby’s save percentage at even-strength, five-on-five hockey, Holtby is actually performing significantly stronger in shots that are taken in the “high-danger” areas of the ice (right in the slot in front of the goal crease).
Through his first 14 games last season, Holtby stopped just 79.66 percent of the shots he faced in the high-danger area, according to Corsica.hockey.. This season Holtby is stopping 89.04 percent of shots faced in the exact same area.
What’s even more impressive is that Holtby has faced significantly more high-danger shots this season than last, 73 this season at five-on-five compared to 59 last year.
To put into perspective just how high Holtby’s 89.04 save percentage in high-danger areas is, according to Corsica, 22.04 percent of shots taken last season were in high-danger areas, and players scored on these shots 20.44 percent of the time. That means that Holtby’s 89.04 save percentage is much higher than what an average goaltender is expected to stop. In fact, Holtby’s 89.04 high-danger save percentage ranks fourth among goaltenders with at least 13 games played this season.
The key for Holtby and his success this season will be sustainability. Maintaining a 89.04 save percentage in high-danger areas isn’t likely. After all, by the end of Holtby’s Vezina-winning season, his high-danger save percentage settled to 82.41 percent. That’s significantly lower than his current save percentage, but still above expected totals.
What isn’t as encouraging for the Capitals, though, is Holtby’s save percentage on the four-on-five penalty kill. So far this year, Holtby has stopped 82.35 percent of the shots he’s faced on the penalty kill. Last year, Holtby managed to stop 88.07 percent of the shots he faced on the penalty kill.
The reason for the vast difference? The amount of shots Holtby has faced in those high-danger areas. Last year in his first 14 games, Holtby saw just 16 shots on the four-on-five penalty kill from the high-danger areas. This year, he’s already faced 23.
Holtby’s totals rank him among the top goaltenders in the NHL once again so far this season. His .927 save percentage ranks seventh among goaltenders with at least 13 games played. His 1.99 goals against average ranks fourth. His nine wins are the sixth-most, and considering his record-setting 48-win pace just last year, that will continue to climb.
With mainstay goaltenders Bishop and Chicago Blackhawks goaltender Corey Crawford continuing to put up strong numbers, and the emergence of Montreal Canadiens goaltender Carey Price, who missed most of last season with a MCL sprain, it may be difficult for the reigning Vezina winner to repeat. But if Holtby continues to stop pucks in high-danger situations, he’ll have another strong argument.
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