In the early morning hours after his team had lost in the National League Division Series, sustaining a recent legacy of an organization that can win a division but not a playoff series, Washington Nationals manager Dusty Baker said a simple thing in his office.
“It will get better.”
Major League Baseball’s postseason awards indicate that individual improvement will be hard to find. The Nationals are the first team in 10 years to have finalists in all four major postseason awards: Rookie of the Year, Manager of the Year, Cy Young and MVP.
Monday night, the Nationals learned that center fielder Trea Turner finished second in Rookie of the Year voting despite playing roughly half a season. A full season from Turner could well make things better.
To come the rest of the week is the major hardware. Baker is among the three Manager of the Year finalists. Max Scherzer is a Cy Young finalist and Daniel Murphy, Plan B who used his “A swing” to become one of the league’s best hitters, is among the final three for National League MVP. Manager of the Year awards are announced Tuesday night. The Cy Young awards will be revealed on Wednesday, and MVPs on Thursday.
Let’s handicap the National League races:
Manager of the Year
Once the Nationals hired Baker, he, and most around baseball, knew there was substantial evidence a rebound from an 83-79 Washington season in 2015 in was likely. Basic health would help push it. A manager with a deft touch would promote it further.
That is what Baker had throughout the season, according to his players. The cliche “players’ manager” was used over and over when those in the Nationals clubhouse spoke of Baker. Despite all his good will and work, Baker has little chance to win his fourth Manager of the Year award. Baker has finished second three times in the past — 2003, 2010 and 2012 — and could be on track for that spot again. Second place is between Baker and Chicago Cubs manager Joe Maddon, because Los Angeles Dodgers manager Dave Roberts should be the clear winner.
Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw missed more than 10 starts. Los Angeles was eight games out of first place June 26 and came back to win the division by four games. Roberts made 606 pitching changes in his first season, an all-time high. He made skilled move after skilled move, noting in the playoffs that he adapted in how he used his bullpen during the regular season.
Maddon was masterful in running the Cubs’ juggernaut throughout the season. He helped them to a league-high 103 wins and an easy Central Division title. However, if the criteria for this award is who did more with less, it should be Roberts in a walk.
Cy Young
This is an interesting race. Criteria for the Cy Young Award has recently, and mercifully, undergone a revolution. Out is paying attention to pitcher win totals. Challenged, in some circles, instead of simply lauded, is ERA. Which makes the outcome here difficult to predict.
Scherzer is joined by two of Maddon’s Cubs: Jon Lester and Kyle Hendricks.
Hendricks led the league, and the trio by far, in ERA. He turned ground ball after ground ball into a 2.13 ERA with a large assist from baseball’s best defense. Lester also benefited from the superior fielding behind him. That helped drag his ERA down 2.44, second-best in the National League. Scherzer finished eighth in the category at 2.96.
Otherwise, the numbers all point to Scherzer. He led the league in innings pitched, strikeouts, and WHIP, plus tied for the lead in strikeout-to-walk ratio. He finished second in batting average against, and accomplished those lower ratios despite throwing almost 700 more pitches than Hendricks and 38 ⅓ more innings.
There is more to explore about those number later in the week (I was one of two Washington-based voters for the NL Cy Young this season). We can delve into then. In short, Scherzer appears to have a strong case, plus two players from the same team often split votes.
MVP
After an historic postseason in 2015, the question around Murphy was if he could, in some manner, replicate his playoff dominance in the regular season. Apparently, the New York Mets did not think so, which is why they did not work to bring Murphy back to their roster. That decision became a boon for Washington.
Murphy led the National League in doubles, slugging percentage and on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS). He finished one point short of the batting title with a .347 average. Murphy did all this hitting while playing second base.
Chicago Cubs third baseman Kris Bryant is Murphy’s main competition. He led the league in runs and finished with 102 RBIs, two categories heavily influenced by teammates. He trailed Murphy slightly in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, doubles and triples. Though, Bryant carries a distinct home run and defensive advantage. He hit 39 homers compared to Murphy’s career-high 25. Bryant also had a 0.8 defensive WAR (defensive wins above replacement) as opposed to Murphy’s -1.0. Bryant’s overall WAR was also significantly higher: 7.7 to 4.6. The decision between the two should be tight.
Appearing to be entrenched in third is Dodgers rookie shortstop Corey Seager. He trailed both Bryant and Murphy in most significant categories, despite a phenomenal first full-time season as a big league shortstop, which earned him the NL’s Rookie of the Year Award on Monday.
Please read our comment policy before commenting.