OPINION:
A debate is raging over whether Republicans or Democrats have the upper hand in next year’s presidential election. Most insiders think that Hillary Rodham Clinton will benefit most because she’s cleared the field of serious opponents and that Republicans will suffer because too many of them are vying for the nomination.
The conventional wisdom is overstated.
Mrs. Clinton is sitting on her lead. Yes, she’s been tacking left rhetorically to appease increasingly liberal rank-and-file Democratic voters. But she hasn’t and probably can never move far enough to satisfy hardcore primary voters.
That’s why even a dark horse like Sen. Bernie Sanders is drawing such large crowds. He’s a legitimate progressive on a wide range of issues and always has been. He’s probably very close in ideology to the typical primary- or caucus-going Democrat. Mrs. Clinton might sound that way sometimes, but she isn’t the genuine article.
In fact, authenticity is a problem for the former secretary of state. She has finally begun to subject herself to interviews with national reporters, but she comes across alternately as droning and forced. She talks but doesn’t seem to connect. Her way of speaking, for whatever reason, fosters doubt about whether she means what she says.
All of which contributes to her most serious shortcoming: trustworthiness. Polls show Mrs. Clinton isn’t widely trusted by independent and swing voters. Republicans, of course, don’t believe her at all and shouldn’t be expected to. But the kinds of voters who decide elections are losing faith in her.
If this trend continues, it would be a mistake to imagine that other first-tier Democrats won’t jump into the race. Politics is part of a market just like anything else. If Mrs. Clinton continues to lose ground to Mr. Sanders in the key states of Iowa and New Hampshire, no one should be surprised to see the likes of Sen. Elizabeth Warren, Secretary of State John Kerry or Vice President Joe Biden step in to take advantage of the obvious opportunity.
Republicans, in contrast, are seen as weak from the start. Former Gov. Jeb Bush of Florida has such a small lead on the rest of the presidential crowd that it almost doesn’t matter. It’s a wide-open contest, some say too wide. How can any of the 14 or more wannabes break away from the pack?
One way is to Trump-et. That means being outrageous enough garner attention — even negative attention — in order to increase name ID with voters. If that persists, all Republicans would be tarnished and the presidential ticket would be hurt. That’s why Mrs. Clinton is trying to lump the entire GOP field with the clownish Donald Trump.
But if Mr. Trump fades as a serious contender — which he is likely to — a true top tier will form over time. The candidates will have to work hard and with serious intent to make it to that level given the sheer number of candidates.
The hydra-headed debate will hone skills and arguments in a way that will make the contestants better politicians and will also make them better known to voters. As long as the wannabes don’t torch each other in the process, the competition will provide drama, and therefore interest, in the GOP side of the presidential race.
Another byproduct could be growing excitement for whoever wins the Republican nomination. A nail-biter contest always heightens the winner’s profile. In other words, Republicans could end up with something Mrs. Clinton doesn’t have: momentum.
In the end, all this speculation could amount to not much. Mrs. Clinton remains the likely nominee and no one would be surprised if a wounded Jeb Bush was selected to run against her after a brutal and bruising primary season. But it won’t be a straight line to get there and evidence is mounting that the race mightn’t get to that exact result at all.
• Jeffrey Birnbaum is a Washington Times columnist, a Fox News contributor and president of BGR Public Relations.
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