Taiwan’s military is applying lessons on modern warfare from regional conflicts and adopting asymmetric warfare tools to prevent a war with China, America’s senior diplomat in Taipei said Wednesday.
Ambassador Raymond Greene, director of the official American Institute in Taiwan, also said a war with China over Taiwan would have a greater impact on the world economy than World War II. The upcoming U.S. visit of Chinese President Xi Jinping will seek to lower the risk of a conflict, he said.
The Xi visit scheduled for Sept. 24 will seek to promote strategic stability and “avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations,” Mr. Greene said.
“As we all know, the threats Taiwan faces continue to grow in scale and sophistication,” Mr. Greene said in rare public remarks to a defense conference in Taipei.
Taiwan’s lessons learned from the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East highlight the changing nature of warfare. The conflicts are helping both the U.S. and its Taiwan ally prevent a similar outbreak of hostilities in the Pacific, he said.
“Taiwan can and is employing lessons from these conflicts, especially the concepts of asymmetry, employment of new technologies, and war fighting on a transparent battlefield,” Mr. Greene said.
The island democracy’s key advantage is a favorable geography — the 90-mile-wide Taiwan Strait that acts as a buffer with the mainland.
“To deter conflict, Taiwan doesn’t need to demonstrate that it could win a war outright,” he said. “It simply needs to convince an adversary that it would struggle to successfully land a large ground force in heavily urbanized, mountainous terrain and sustain it across 90 miles of open, turbulent waters. It is hard to imagine a more difficult and complicated operation, even for a combat-experienced military force.”
China has vowed to annex Taiwan, which Beijing claims is a breakaway province. The U.S. is committed to helping defend the island with defensive military equipment under the 1979 Taiwan Relations Act.
Mr. Xi has ordered the Chinese Communist Party’s military, the People’s Liberation Army, to be ready to use force against Taiwan by next year, although U.S. military leaders say the date is not a deadline for war.
Over the past several years, the PLA has sharply stepped up provocative and large-scale military operations around Taiwan along with increased propaganda and information warfare efforts in a bid to coerce Taiwan into submitting to Beijing’s demands.
Mr. Greene said asymmetric warfare represents the key for Taiwan in applying military ingenuity and rapid adaptation.
Key weapons systems that will allow a less powerful Taiwan to counter China’s more powerful army include drone weapons, greater mission command and control and increased societal resilience, he said.
Taiwan’s advanced manufacturing capabilities will boost its drones along with battle-tested U.S. systems such as Anduril’s Altius and Shield AI’s V-BAT aerial drones, he said.
Underwater drones and AI-enabled swarming technologies will also strengthen Taiwan defenses, he said.
Taiwan’s defense will apply a system-of-systems defense by fusing conventional and drone systems with advanced command, control and intelligence capabilities, he said.
To counter Chinese information operations targeting the island, Taiwan also needs to prepare for new and sophisticated propaganda that will seek to sow division and undermine democracy, he said.
The administration of Taiwan President Lai Ching-te was also praised by Mr. Greene for boosting defense spending to 5% of GDP by 2030, a key demand of the Trump administration.
“In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine and facing unprecedented provocations across the Taiwan Strait later that same year, Taipei has moved decisively to bolster its defense,” Mr. Greene said.
“This isn’t incremental change; it is a fundamental shift in how seriously Taiwan approaches its own defense, and it deserves real recognition.”
In Beijing, a spokesman for the Taiwan Affairs Office of the State Council was asked about Taiwan and said “peaceful” unification and adoption of China’s one country, two systems formula is the best solution.
One country, two systems calls for keeping a democratic system under mainland annexation.
The formula was promised for Hong Kong but ultimately replaced with Chinese Communist Party rule.
“The reunification of the motherland is an unstoppable historical trend,” said Chen Binhua, the spokesperson, at a news briefing Wednesday.